Why I am shorting at $4150.

Why I am shorting at $4150.

Hello traders,

If you remember from my previous analysis, I mentioned the possibility of bearish attack last week, but bulls have been very stubborn and push the price above $4100 in the last few days. After bearish breakout on March 25th, I expected to go further down to $3850 region, but I have to terminate that idea when I saw Bitcoin price went above $3950, and I made first bullish entry on March 27th, followed by March 29th, and I exited at $4130.

I see a lot of people are saying “bull run is coming” or “bear market is over”, but I see a lot of red flags in the cryptocurrency market in general and I feel like bulls are getting a little bit desperate.

First red signal for me is Litecoin movement. Looking at the 4 hour chart, while Bitcoin price is going up litecoin price is struggling to go above $62 on binance. Additionally, there is a bearish divergence in the 4-hour chart, which indicate weakness. Just be clear, I will not call bull market if Litecoin goes above $62 with convincing volume .

Another red flag for me is the binance weekly chart. The price of binance coin went up almost 330% since the rally from December without any weekly retracement. We see that MACD histogram is turning from light blue to dark blue, indicating bullish momentum is slowing down. Weekly RSI is oversold and there was a bearish Stoch RSI crossover for quite some time. I would like to see at least 50% fibonacci retracement in next few weeks, where we see a confluent zone of support and resistance .

Last warning sign is this rising wedge formation when Bitcoin is on bullish trend . If you look 4 hour chart in past one month, every time we see rising wedge/flag formation, we also had bearish breakout. Rising wedge is a bearish pattern and we are starting to see this formation once again. I just drew bullish wedge (in pink) and rising wedge (in black) for reference.

This is a very critical point for Bitcoin , and I really want it to go above $4200 and start bull run, but there are just so many bearish indicators in the chart that can’t be ignored.

Published at Mon, 01 Apr 2019 18:27:33 +0000

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