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Sacrilegious Binance Reorg Would ‘Erode’ Bitcoin: Blockstream’s Adam Back

Sacrilegious binance reorg would ‘erode’ bitcoin: blockstream’s adam back

Sacrilegious Binance Reorg Would ‘Erode’ Bitcoin: Blockstream’s Adam Back

Sacrilegious binance reorg would ‘erode’ bitcoin: blockstream’s adam back

By CCN: Blockstream CEO Adam Back told the What Bitcoin Did podcast that the block reshuffling proposed by Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao would raise “geopolitical issues” had it been attempted.

Accept That bitcoin Is Final

Back explained why the idea of a chain reorganization as a means to punish hackers or rescue lost bitcoins is a terrible idea.

“You just have to accept that Bitcoin is final because a whole bunch of factors which we can get into, but it’s basically, you know, all of the infrastructure is set up to automatically just continue consuming and finalizing transactions. And there’s a lot of inertia and equipment that’s just running away, mining transactions, so it’s very hard. The software is not designed to undo things. The infrastructure isn’t designed to undo it. And there’s all kinds of side-effects if you did. And the side-effects are both technical and economic.

“In game theory, if you can undo something, the attacker can do other things. And people who disagree with the reorg can do other things. People are very incentivized to see it not happen because they’ve seen other coins have this happen and suffer a great loss of credibility as a result. And there are also geopolitical issues that, you know, you would establish a precedent that would erode one of the major benefits of Bitcoin, being censorship-resistance, which ties back to this kind of finality of the network.”

All For One, One For All

The Bitcoin “reorg” idea floated by Changpeng Zhao in the wake of his exchange’s 7,000 BTC loss was quickly withdrawn as community scorn centered on the embattled CEO. Zhao made clear that the idea didn’t originate with him, but his team had considered it and reached out to potential conspirators including Jihan Wu.

Bitcoin chain reorganizations have, of course, taken place throughout the blockchain’s life. The system is designed to tolerate them so long as there is consensus following a reorganization, although a lack thereof would lead to continued reorganizations. The reason that Bitcoin isn’t in a state of constant chaos is that those who have the hashpower abide by the same rules, and many use the same implementation of Bitcoin for their mining nodes.

Core developer Bryan Bishop spoke of a potential scenario where an exchange and a thief essentially battle it out with miners, trying to pay them to accept their preferred version of the blockchain.

As Back said, there are, of course, economic issues associated with a purpose-driven Bitcoin chain reorganization. The “erosion” he speaks of would extend beyond the idea of censorship-resistance and immutability.

People would question how decentralized the network truly is, and whether their coins could ever be safe in a system where such rollbacks are possible. Understandably, such a “precedent” might create the first real window for other coins to rise in history.

Gratefully, we still don’t know what happens if an individual, influential actor works to his own benefit at the expense of the network’s credibility. In the grand scheme of things, the Binance hack is quite small by comparison to other major hacks. Back points out that it’s about 100 times smaller than the Mt. Gox losses, which rocked crypto markets and overwhelmingly contributed to the first extended bear market.

Listen to the interview below.

Published at Wed, 15 May 2019 09:27:55 +0000

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Bitcoin Price Analysis: Bitcoin’s Parabolic Envelope Could Push to $8000s

Bitcoin Price Analysis

bitcoin has had a quite a year thus far, to say the least. A 10x return since the beginning of the year has put bitcoin on a parabolic growth path that is testing the limits of this 2-year long bull market:

Figure_1 (17).JPGFigure 1: BTC-USD, 3-Day Candles, Parabolic Growth Envelope

The gains have been incredible for those trading bitcoin for the last couple years, and it appears that this parabolic envelope is coming to a close. In order for this bull market to remain viable, it will need to keep up on a very aggressive, parabolic growth path that has the immediate upper resistance at between $8,000 – $9,000. Similarly, the lower support is around $5,800.

A break of either the support or resistance will put bitcoin in a very precarious position. If bitcoin breaks the upper, parabolic resistance trend and manages to find support on the trendline, this could signal an entirely new bull market. However, if bitcoin breaks the lower support, this would send a very, very bearish signal to traders, indicating a breakdown of the 2-year long bull market.

Given the trend we have seen over the last two years, it would not be at all surprising to see a test of the $8,000s before any sort of market correction (micro or macro) takes place. We are on a very aggressive growth path and, on a macro-scale, one that has has shown a consistent trend of testing the upper curve prior to correction.

This is a very strong bull market and it it should not be underestimated. However, in an effort to remain objective, it’s important to present the not-so-obvious argument and state the consequences of a disruption of this macro bull market.

Figure_2 (14).JPGFigure 2: BTC-USD, 1-Day candles, Retests of Previous All-time Highs

Throughout the life of this parabolic run, bitcoin has shown a penchant for retests during market pullbacks. We can see in the image above that every time the market peaks the upper resistance curve, it has pulled back to retest the previous all-time high before the resumption of uptrend. Part of the consequences of this parabolic growth is we are at a point where the growth is so aggressive that a retest of the previous all-time high would throw the market trend well outside the parabolic envelope. And, as stated above, that would send a very strong macro bearish signal to traders and investors as this marks a breakdown of the 2-year long trend.

Summary:

  1. The parabolic trend bitcoin has seen over the last two years is approaching a very aggressive level that could make bitcoin see aggressive price swings in the coming weeks.

  2. The upper boundary of the parabolic curve could have bitcoin testing the $8,000s.

  3. A break below the lower curve could spark a macro bear market as this signals the breakdown of the bull market’s multi-year trend.

Trading and investing in digital assets like bitcoin and ether is highly speculative and comes with many risks. This analysis is for informational purposes and should not be considered investment advice. Statements and financial information on bitcoin Magazine and BTC Media related sites do not necessarily reflect the opinion of BTC Media and should not be construed as an endorsement or recommendation to buy, sell or hold. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

The post Bitcoin Price Analysis: Bitcoin’s Parabolic Envelope Could Push to $8000s appeared first on Bitcoin Magazine.

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Bitcoin Reloading for Another Shot Up

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