Ein Blick unter die Haube: Bitcoin-Fundamentaldaten weisen nordwärts
Bottom hin oder her, Bitcoins Fundamentdaten sprechen eine eindeutige Sprache. Wie es um die Lage der Kryptowährung Nr. 1 beschert ist, illustriert sich anhand von verschiedenen Kennzahlen ganz augenscheinlich. Wir haben drei davon näher unter die Lupe genommen: Die Rede ist von Hash Rate, Handelsvolumen und Skalierungspotenzial, respektive Lightning-Verbreitung.
Hash Rate
Die bitcoin Hash Rate ist auf einem Viermonatshoch. Zu Redaktionsschluss betrug die akkumulierte Rechenpower im bitcoin-Netzwerk 48,5 Millionen TH/s. Damit ist sie so hoch wie letztmalig Mitte November 2018. Betrachtete man den Verlauf der Kurve ist eine Umkehrung des sinkenden Trends bereits Anfang Januar dieses Jahres sichtbar.
Zu sehen ist die Entwicklung der bitcoin Hash Rate seit Ende März 2018. Daten und Chart von blockchain.com.
Die steigende Hash Rate impliziert vor allem, dass die Miner bei derzeitigen Kurswerten profitabel wirtschaften können. Denn wieso sollten die Farmen sonst mehr Geräte ans Netz hängen? Dieser Umstand entkräftet das nachhaltig.
Übrigens: Die aktuelle BTC-Gesamtrechenleistung übersteigt jene während des Allzeithochs Ende 2017 um das Vierfache, wie @bitcoinister korrekterweise herausstellt:
hash rate is now over 4x greater than when price hit its record high of nearly $20,000 in December 2017
— 🍯₿adger⚡️ (@bitcoinister)
Die bitcoin Hash Rate ist jetzt mehr als vier mal höher als damals, als der BTC-Kurs im Dezember 2017 sein Rekordhoch von fast 20.000 US-Dollar erreichte.
BTC-Handelsvolumen
Auch das Exchange-Handelsvolumen steigt an. Darauf machte der Marktanalyst Kevin Rooke aufmerksam, wir .
Volume has increased by ~150% in the last 5 months 📈
Average daily volume hasn’t been this high since Jan 2018 👀
Only 9 days in the last 12 months had $10B+ in volume 💰
5 of those days have been in March 2019 🍀
— Kevin Rooke (@kerooke)
Bitcoins tägliches Exchange-Handelsvolumen boomt
Das Volumen steigerte sich um 150 Prozent während der letzten fünf Monate
Das durchschnittliche tägliche Handelsvolumen war seit Januar 2018 nicht mehr so hoch
Lediglich neun Tage innerhalb der letzten zwölf Monate wiesen ein Volumen von über 10 Milliarden US-Dollar auf
Davon waren fünf im März 2019
Ein höheres Handelsvolumen impliziert nicht automatisch einen höheren Kurs, sondern deutet einzig auf die Aktivität der Trader hin – und die können sich bekanntermaßen auch Short positionieren.
Allerdings beweist der Anstieg, dass Leben in den Markt zurückkehrt. Das dürfte ein gutes Signal sein.
Lightning Network
Das Netzwerk mit dem Blitz ist seit geraumer Zeit auf dem Vormarsch. Seit Beginn des Jahres hat sich die Anzahl der Nodes im Lightning Network verdoppelt.
Dargestellt ist die anzahl der lightning nodes mit channel (blau) und ohne channel (orange) im zeitraum 1. Januar 2019 bis 20. März 2019.
Nun gibt es sage und schreibe 4.019 aktive Lightning Nodes mit integriertem Channel. Ein gutes Zeichen für die Adaption des Zahlungssystems. In Anbetracht der Tatsache, dass es vor einem Jahr gerade einmal 706 aktive Nodes gab, ist das eine bemerkenswerte Entwicklung.
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bitcoin Approaches $3,700 as Top Cryptos Report Gains Tuesday, Jan. 15 — all the top 20 cryptocurrencies are seeing slight to moderate gains in the 24 hours to press time. bitcoin BTC’s (BTC) price has […]
(Bcash) forked from the bitcoin blockchain to create a new cryptocurrency (BCH), and ahead of the that may do the same thing, a third bitcoin fork is in the making: Gold (Bgold; BTG). But where Bcash and SegWit2X are scaling-related forks — both mainly increase bitcoin’s block size limit — Bgold wants to re-decentralize mining by implementing a new proof-of-work algorithm.
“What was born as decentralized is now centralized,” bitcoin Gold contributor J. Alejandro Regojo told bitcoin Magazine, referring to the current state of bitcoin mining. “With this fork, we want to show how bitcoin can be as ‘Satoshi’ as possible, as social as possible, and as decentralized as possible.”
Mining Centralization
bitcoin Gold was initiated by Jack Liao, CEO of Hong Kong–based mining hardware producer, and was first announced in late August. The open project has been gaining traction and support in the wider cryptocurrency space since, with a as a main hub for discussion and organization. Bgold is currently being developed by the pseudonymous developer “h4x3rotab” along with a small group of volunteers contributing to the project in other ways.
The attention Bgold has attracted is probably in part because anyone who owns bitcoin (BTC) on October 25th will receive the equivalent amount of BTG. While this model has been criticized, particularly because it presents a burden on service providers and users, it has also proven successful. With the launch of bitcoin Cash in particular, users eagerly accepted their batch of “free money,” while exchanges, wallets and other service providers proved relatively willing to integrate the new coin.
Further, the Bgold team believes that this distribution method should also benefit bitcoin over altcoins as it provides an extra incentive to hold BTC on particular dates.
“But the key goal that we are trying to achieve with this fork is to build a perpetually ASIC-resistant version of bitcoin,” said Robert Kuhne, another bitcoin Gold contributor, in explaining the purpose of the project to bitcoin Magazine.
Bgold contributors like Regojo and Kuhne think that bitcoin’s proof-of-work hashing algorithm was essentially broken by the introduction of specialized ASIC (application-specific integrated circuit) mining hardware. In the early years of bitcoin’s existence, individual users were often also miners; this has since become concentrated into relatively centralized operated by professionals.
“And we’re now in a situation where 65 percent of hash power comes from a country that doesn’t like bitcoin,” Regojo noted, referring to China’s recent on cryptocurrencies.
An Uneven Playing Field
And while mining is centralized, ASIC production is even more centralized, the Bgold contributors pointed out. Only a handful of companies currently produce such specialized chips.
This means that anyone who wants to be a miner in any meaningful way is beholden to these companies, Kuhne argued.
“The way the monopoly manufacturer currently operates is abusive to its customers — individual miners — and the industry at large,” he said, referring to major Chinese ASIC producer Bitmain. “Manufacturers can produce ASICs at a tiny cost, but miners have to buy at a high price. This violates the one-CPU-one-vote ethos as described in the bitcoin white paper, because while everyone can buy CPU at the same price, the same is not true for ASIC hardware.”
Regojo and Kuhne see this as a fundamental problem — not something that free market dynamics can realistically resolve. They suggest that the barrier of entry to the ASIC market to compete with existing manufacturers is fundamentally too high to allow for open competition.
“You can’t build a factory without approval from the government and banking system. So there are really only a handful of entities in the world that have total authority over who can and can’t manufacture ASIC machines. And all this could potentially get much worse if and when those institution really start feeling the disruption from bitcoin, which hasn’t begun in earnest yet,” Kuhne said.
As opposed to the bitcoin Cash and (especially) the upcoming SegWit2X forks, bitcoin Gold very specifically does not make a claim to be the “real” bitcoin. Instead, the Bgold project hopes it can prove a valuable exercise for bitcoin; a sort of test case for a hard fork that bitcoin itself may one day require.
Concretely, bitcoin Gold is now implementing the proof-of-work algorithm. This is already used by and is relatively ASIC-resistant.
Full ASIC-resistance, however, is thought to be impossible: Any mining algorithm could be subject to specialized chips. Like, the Bgold community therefore plans to re-deploy a new proof-of-work algorithm hard fork if it is found out that ASIC-chips for Equihash are being produced. (This plan alone, of course, could be a deterrent for any potential ASIC-producer.)
For security, the project plans to implement strong replay protection to avoid loss of funds for unsuspecting or non-technical users. It will also adopt a new difficulty re-target algorithm to prevent the blockchain from stalling: Difficulty is re-adjusted at every block instead of once every two weeks.
While the coin is set to launch two weeks from now, the Bgold codebase is not yet fully developed and ready to be deployed. Implementation of the new proof-of-work algorithm and replay protection, as well as the new difficulty re-adjustment scheme, are yet to be finished.
Nor are all the details for the project even ironed out.
indicated that bitcoin Gold would have a closed launch and a presale of coins. A new batch of BTG was to be mined in the first week after the fork and subsequently distributed to designated investors, not unlike an ICO. Proceeds of this “ICO” were then to be used for development and other Bgold-related purposes.
However, as interest in the project grew, this idea became more controversial. Not everyone involved with bitcoin Gold likes the idea of an additional founders reward — something Bcash, for example, did not have.
Kuhne addressed the issue by stating: “We have heard a lot of feedback from the community, so this proposal will be replaced with an updated and improved plan. But we will not completely rule out the possibility of a modest pre-mine to provide a basic level of funding for the project.”
Disclaimer: The author of this article holds BTC and will therefore also own BTG at launch.