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Debunking ₿itcoin Myths: “It’s Only for Criminals”

Debunking ₿itcoin myths: "it’s only for criminals"

Debunking ₿itcoin Myths: “It’s Only for Criminals”

Debunking ₿itcoin myths: "it’s only for criminals"

A series of op eds by Kyle Torpey addressing some of the oft-repeated arguments against ₿itcoin

bitcoin’s core value proposition is that it is an uncontrolled, apolitical money. To some people, this means ₿itcoin is only useful to people who want to get around various regulations imposed on the world’s financial systems and society more generally.

And in a way, these ₿itcoin critics have a point. ₿itcoin can be quite useful for criminals, much like physical cash. However, the permissionless nature of ₿itcoin also enables other valuable use cases of this new technology.

bitcoin is simply a tool. And that tool can be used by both good and bad people.

Non-Criminals in the Developed World

In the developed world, ₿itcoin has mostly been used for price speculation. People simply want to bet on the future potential of this new digital asset. That’s not a crime.

In addition to outright speculation on ₿itcoin and altcoins, there are those who already view ₿itcoin as a credible store of value due to its difficult-to-corrupt monetary policy.

Having said that, there are also some nonspeculative use cases for ₿itcoin that have gained traction in places like the United States and Western Europe.

If someone wants to protect their financial privacy online, ₿itcoin is often seen as the best available option. Although privacy-conscious altcoins, such as Monero and Zcash, have increased in popularity, ₿itcoin is still generally preferred in this niche due to its own privacy improvements (Samourai Wallet and Wasabi Wallet come to mind) and various network effects.

Seeking privacy does not necessarily mean someone is doing anything wrong. Some people are simply becoming more conscious about the amount of personal data they hand over to third parties, especially in light of Facebook’s ongoing privacy controversies.

There are also a variety of other, admittedly niche, ₿itcoin-related activities that can be found in the developed world — such as saving money on Amazon purchases via Purse.io and timestamping.

Additionally, it should be noted that “criminal activity” is a rather subjective term. While some ₿itcoin users may technically be criminals, much of this activity may be seen as morally acceptable by the vast majority of society. Does anyone really care if someone buys a small amount of marijuana on a darknet market?

Furthermore, what’s illegal in one country may be legal in another.

Non-Criminals in the Developing World

bitcoin has long been touted as having the ability to “bank the unbanked” around the world. While some of this narrative is likely overblown, at least for now, it’s true that ₿itcoin can be a solution in the developing world for holding digital value (especially in countries dealing with high levels of inflation) and gaining access to the internet economy.

Issues around identity and reputation make it difficult or uneconomical for banks to provide services in some markets, so ₿itcoin can be helpful in filling in the cracks found in the global financial system.

This access to the global economy is also much more difficult for local tyrants to control when it’s enabled by ₿itcoin. For example, families leaving Venezuela are able to more easily hold onto their savings by placing it into a ₿itcoin private key rather than something physical like cash or gold.

Those who don’t believe the developing world will want to hold an asset as volatile as ₿itcoin should look at an app like Abra, which allows users to peg the value of their ₿itcoin to basically any real-world asset.

The developing world also accounts for the other side of the aforementioned Purse.io. Much of the Amazon credit liquidity that powers the site purportedly comes from Amazon Mechanical Turk workers in the developing world.

The key attribute that these use cases in the developed and developing worlds share is that they rely on the existence of a digital bear ecash like ₿itcoin. Much like the development of the internet itself, the permissionless nature of ₿itcoin has the potential to unlock large amounts of value for the world.

This is a guest post by Kyle Torpey. Opinions expressed are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of ₿itcoin Magazine or BTC Inc.

Published at Mon, 29 Apr 2019 17:16:29 +0000

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Bitcoin Price Analysis: There May Still Be Some Life in These Exhausted Bulls

Bitcoin Price Analysis

Over the last week, the BTC-USD market has seen some major price swings. At one point, the price nearly reached $4500 only to see it pull back down to the low $4100s. And now, within two days, the price has topped back out in the low $4400s. There has been some major chop and seemingly erratic dumps and price hikes, but overall there seems to be a common upward trent within the macro market movements:

Figure_1 (10).JPGFigure 1: BTC-USD, 4-Hour Candles, Bitfinex, Macro Trend

Since the bottom of the bear run last month, bitcoin has seen several rallies that have continued along a generally positive trend. The figure above shows a trend of higher highs, higher lows and an upper/lower boundary that is converging. This type of price activity is called a rising wedge.

Coupled with this price growth is a trend of decreasing volume throughout the length of the wedge. A rising wedge is generally a bearish trend that shows weakening bullish pressure as each subsequent rally becomes smaller and smaller. As the price corrects, there are rallies that bring the price to new highs, but ultimately rally on smaller and smaller volume.

As of the time of this article, the latest rally has failed to make a new high in the low $4400s. A breakdown of this wedge could lead to a substantial price drop of approximately $500 below the point of breakdown. The approximate price target would be around $3700.

Although rising wedges are bearish in nature, that doesn’t mean new highs aren’t in store for bitcoin. The macro trend is currently showing a potential bearish move, but there is still some strength in the market. The market is currently trending above the 50 EMA and 200 EMA which, by many standards, is representative of a trending bullish market. Although the price is trending upward and the overall EMA signals are showing potential upward continuation, there are pretty clear signs of bullish exhaustion on the macro scale:

Figure_2 (10).JPGFigure 2: BTC-USD, 4-Hour Candles, Bitfinex, Bullish Exhaustion

As stated earlier, the rising wedge is paired with decreasing volume which is a clear giveaway that upward momentum is waning. To complement this exhaustion, the RSI and MACD are showing clear signs of bearish divergence in the current market and are demonstrating a lack of the bullish momentum necessary to sustain a bull market.

If the rising wedge breaks to the bottom, we can expect the support levels to lie on the Fibonacci Retracement values shown above. The ultimate price target of the rising wedge would have BTC-USD testing the 50% retracement values.

On a very, very macro scale, there are clear signs of overall bullish exhaustion since the beginning of its run from the low $1000s:

Figure_3 (10).JPGFigure 3: BTC-USD, 1-Week Candles, Bitfinex, Macro Bullish Exhaustion

Two very clear indicators of bullish momentum loss lie on the RSI and the MACD. The price of bitcoin has pushed to strong, new highs but it has left the momentum indicators weakening. The RSI is showing strong macro divergence, and the MACD is on the verge of flipping bearish for the first time since the ETF was denied back in April.

It’s not hard to argue that bitcoin has seen heavy price growth and needs a little room to breath. It is entirely possible the market won’t see any strong pullback and it may go sideways. However, in the event that a sustained market pulls the price down, we can expect to find support along the midline of the Bollinger Bands in the low $3000s. It’s important that the above chart and market implications of this macro divergence are occurring on candles that are one week. So, while this doesn’t mean the market will just suddenly plummet, it is important to understand that a substantial price drop could be in bitcoin’s future.

Even though I gave plenty of bearish arguments, it should be noted that these predictions are on a macro scale, and the immediate trend is showing strong support along the 50 and 200 EMAs. The market is bullish until proven otherwise. As the saying goes: “the trend is your friend.” bitcoin has had one heck of a year so far, but I think it’s important to point out the clear signs of a macro bullish exhaustion:

Summary:

  1. bitcoin is finding support and showing a bullish trend along the 50 and 200 EMAs.

  2. On a macro level, the trend is pushing upward but is showing a potential bearish move if the market breaks out of the rising wedge identified in Figure 1.

  3. A breakout of this wedge would have its price target in the $3700s.

Trading and investing in digital assets like bitcoin, bitcoin cash and ether is highly speculative and comes with many risks. This analysis is for informational purposes and should not be considered investment advice. Statements and financial information on bitcoin Magazine and BTC Media related sites do not necessarily reflect the opinion of BTC Media and should not be construed as an endorsement or recommendation to buy, sell or hold. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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