Anatomy of a Bear Market 2018: We Bearly Made It

Anatomy of a Bear Market 2018: We Bearly Made It

In the Anatomy of a Bear Market Series I compare different bitcoin             Bear markets between several years.

The 2018 bitcoin             Market has played out as Bear and it is likely to continue through winter while bears take a long nap in their caves.
Its structure is similar to the 2014 Bear Market. Of course, they are different markets, reflecting different times, but still consist of the same common elements.
Both markets have several S/R points supported by a trend line , a flash crash, comparable down channels, matching EMAs and fib levels.
However we didn’t have a proper prev high retest in 2018. Here’s what can happen with bitcoin             in 2019 based on history of 2014 Bear Market.

We can be in either P1 or P2 points of 2014.
– based on W1 EMA200 and fib level 88.6% we’re currently sitting on, it’s P2
– based on lack of volume , we’re somewhere around P1, just sitting on top of another W1 EMA100 instead of W1 EMA200. So, the price may drop to W1 EMA400 and that’s also a matching fib level

Conclusions:
– If the current bear market plays out as 2014, we won’t see a bull run until Sep 2019.
– We will likely bottom out in March 2019
– Although some analysts predict a bounce up from W1 EMA200 and 15K             by the year end, this is likely just to calm down the investors.
– It may seem like a capitulation but it’s not. There was no significant rebound and we could see more/increasing volume .
– There’s no negative FUD in the media, good news show up while bad news are postponed.
– To spot the bottom look for an increase in high volume spikes/candle size (supply absorption, accumulation), extreme levels on W1, D1 RSI , and multiple macro divergences on high TFs.
– Even higher volume at the top implies distribution and bounce back for another drop down soon.
– We can still drop further, for example to W1 EMA400. And it’s another 88.6% fib level when pulling a macro fib from the 2014 bottom ATL            

Targets:
bear target1: 3000-3300
bear target2: 2000
bull target: 5500 (retest of prev high)
There are also algo targets and supply zones supporting these levels.

Good Luck!

Please don’t trade based only on my analysis. This is not a financial advice. Do you own research to confirm.

I’m using BLX             full history with enough bars to show W1 EMA/SMA on D1
view the 2014 Bear screen or scroll the chart to the left:

Published at Sat, 24 Nov 2018 00:43:19 +0000