I’ve compared 2018 to 2014-2015, the pattern rhymes and is a useful comparison. Here I explained why 3,000 is likely – breakdown target on a log scale is a 50% breakdown from 6k. Triangle breakdown nearly complete at time of posting.
The previous bear market is useful, however, NASDAQ’s dot com bubble and crash provides a different insight into the extent of the selloff before a bottom is found. Note: timelines here are chosen to show similarities behind charts. Most important TA for is the 1D (1W) with 120, 200 and 350 MAs (20, 30 & 50).
Similarities:
– strong bull run, low highs and higher lows, prior highs (resistance) later act as support
– stays in oversold range for many periods, ranging back and forth
– steep run up, strong sell off at peak, flash rebound to a lower high, and then another strong sell off
Differences:
– consolidation period lasts very long, very short for IXIC
– in addition to lower highs, NASDAQ also had lower lows, held a low of 6k for most of 2018
How NASDAQ helps:
Prior lows on NASDAQ align with prior lows/highs on the bull run. I added values to NASDAQ’s run up to mimic price levels, these may help find bottom.
If falls like IXIC, we could see a drop to 3k with a break down to about ~2900 and a strong bounce up from 3k. This is a move i have been expecting for months, however IXIC chart shows that this bounce may be a bull trap. May get rejected around 5k with a hidden divergence. If this happens we could see a selloff to 1800 and bottom there, if we fall similar to NASDAQ.
i remain for Jan-Feb timeline as the MAs discussed above should roll under price and I am optimistic on the VanEck proposal.
Published at Tue, 04 Dec 2018 19:02:56 +0000
