The question is not an easy one considering the emerging state of the crypto market, which means it’s very sensitive to any fundamental that, very often, has a sudden impact. If you’d have asked someone late in 2017 what the price would be by the end of 2018, he would probably have come with a bold prediction, such as $100,000 or even half of a million. Of course, the forecast would have been based on the recent prices, which at that time were above $15,000.
For example, Saxo Bank’s Kay Van-Petersen, the company’s global macro strategist, said in December 2017 that the prices would trade between $50k and $100k within the next six to 18 months. Based on his logic, we should have already noticed fluctuating above $50,000 — have you seen it happen? Not really. However, the eighteen month period will end in May of this year, so Van-Petersen’s prediction might still become a reality if jumps above $50k by June. Currently, it is at around $4,000.
“We’ll get a cascade of ETFs, mutual funds and other investment vehicles breaking out,” he said then.
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We’re still waiting for the first crypto-related approval by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (). At least, we have some ETFs on the European continent.
It is true that more institutional investors have entered the crypto market and surely more products like ETFs, mutual funds, and futures will show up sooner or later. However, we don’t know if this process will happen right now or in more than two years. But the crypto continues despite the bearish mood…or maybe because of it. Think about it — many investors are happy to buy cryptos at discount prices right now.
In fact, price predictions have gone so wrong that Tom Lee, Wall Street’s most popular forecaster, gave up giving any outlooks for the coin.
“We are tired of people asking us about target prices. Because of the inherent volatility in crypto, we will cease to provide any timeframes for the realization of fair value,” he told clients.
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prices have stabilized in the last few months, but it’s still challenging to act as an oracle.
Here are more predictions that got wrong:
So, in the next two years, we might see a typical price for — something above $10,000, or a surprising price, which will go above $50,000. The main factors to influence the price related to the level, use cases, and the frequency of transactions. On the other hand, we know the current and total maximum supply of and we know the velocity of most popular currencies. However, the trend will be eventually decided by the factors we don’t know.
I see between $10,000 and $50,000 in two years from now. The coin will maybe get adopted thanks to technologies like the Lightning Network and due to institutional investors.
Published at Wed, 27 Mar 2019 14:08:36 +0000
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