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Wall Street Still Throwing Billions At [BTC], But There’s Still A Ways To Go

Wall street still throwing billions at [btc], but there’s still a ways to go

Wall Street Still Throwing Billions At [BTC], But There’s Still A Ways To Go

Wall street still throwing billions at [btc], but there’s still a ways to go

Since Bitcoin volumes began to dissipate in late-2018, which came alongside price plunges, the crypto’s curious investors have sought to determine where the money has fled. For the longest time, it was assumed that over-the-counter (OTC) desks picked up where spot exchanges, namely Bitfinex and Coinbase, were slacking. Yet, a recent company update from Circle has touted OTC statistics that could be deemed lackluster.

Related Reading: Circle CEO: [BTC] Price Will Boom In Years To Come

Circle Trade [BTC] Volumes May Indicate Lacking Institutional Demand

Last week, the Goldman Sachs-backed, Boston-based Circle, a leading player in the nascent OTC market, released its year in review, compiling pertinent data from fiscal 2018 in an apparent stab at transparency. Circle Trade, the startup’s OTC arm, reportedly transacted $24 billion in notional volumes across 10,000 transactions, which serviced 36 distinct crypto assets and 600 counterparties.

Alex Krüger broke down the statistics in-depth via Twitter. Krüger, a leading crypto researcher and commentator, noted that assuming 75% of Trade’s volume was the BTC/USD pair, $49 million was traded each day on average.

While Trade’s figures aren’t shabby by any means, as they accentuate the fact that institutions are still throwing billions at Bitcoin, there’s much to be desired. Krüger explained that “in contrast,” BitMEX and Bitfinex, traded an average of $2.1 billion and $278 million each day respectively. Even discounting leverage trades on these platforms and volume from competing BTC/fiat exchanges, there’s still an ostensible gap.

And considering that Trade is the pinnacle of OTC desks, the figures are that much more harrowing, especially if you factor in the optimistic talk that Wall Street is going all-in on Bitcoin.

Maybe It’s Not Too Bad After All

However, considering that no other preeminent dark pools or OTC markets have divulged their trading statistics, there is a chance that Circle makes up a mere percentage of this subsector, contrary to community sentiment. Moreover, a recent statement from Christine Sandler, head of coverage at Coinbase, indicates that this little-known segment of the cryptosphere is still doing alright. Sandler, admitting that Coinbase’s OTC launch was “opportunistic,” stated:

“We found that a lot of institutions are using OTC to on-ramp [their fiat] for crypto trading. And so we felt that this was a huge benefit for our clients to leverage our exchange and our OTC desk.”

Speaking with Ran NeuNer of CNBC Africa, Changpeng Zhao, the chief executive at Binance, recently noted that the volume drought of 2018 can be attributed to the rise in dark pools. Citing sources, Zhao noted that OTC markets could be “at least as large as the live recorded volumes [on CoinMarketCap].” If the Binance chief’s comments are accurate, this could indicate that commentators en-masse have been overestimating Circle’s impact. So, maybe Wall Street hotshots are still emptying their bank accounts to buy cryptocurrencies after all.

Featured Image from Shutterstock

Published at Sun, 06 Jan 2019 12:24:54 +0000

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Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Pushes All-time Highs and Tests Historic Resistance

Bitcoin Price Analysis

Throughout the life of bitcoin’s two-year bull run, it has been confined within two macro trends: one parabolic and one linear — both on a logarithmic scale:

Figure_1.JPGFigure 1: BTC-USD, 1-Day Candles, Macro Trend

The parabolic envelope (black curves) has confined the entire bull run throughout the last two years. Over the weekend, we saw a test of the lower curve that proved to be proper support and propelled the market into a bounce that now has the market testing the upper linear trendline (purple lines) at the time of this article:
Figure_2.JPGFigure 2: BTC-USD, 2-Hour Candles, Test of Upper Trendline

As the bitcoin market approaches the upper trendline, the price action will coincide with a test of the previous all-time high. Expect this to be a point of resistance with possible market turbulence. However, if we manage to break that resistance level and hold support above the trendline, there is no clear resistance until we test the parabolic envelope in the upper $8,000s.

If we look at the macro indicators for this move, we see some signs that have proven to be indications of short-term rallies leading to corrections:

Figure_3.JPGFigure 3: BTC-USD, 1-Day Candles, Bollinger Band Trend

The last two corrections bitcoin has seen came on the tail of a minor pullback that rebounded to a new all-time high. The one-day candle trend is, so far, showing a repeated pattern that has led into a reversal each time it tested the upper parabolic curve. A rounding of the Bollinger bands during an upward move (shown in purple) is a forecast for decreased upward volatility that will lead to either a consolidation period or a reversal to the lower Bollinger bands.

While a reversal is not required of this move upward, one can speculate that once the price tags the upper parabolic curve, we could see a pullback to the lower Bollinger bands on the one-day charts. A pullback to the lower Bollinger bands would see support quite nicely with the lower parabolic curve.

One of two outcomes can be expected from this move upward: either we will test the upper parabolic trendline and reverse, or we will break above and consolidate before continuing on a very strong bullish move to new highs.

However, these macro moves have become increasingly more demanding on the market as we continue to get squeezed within the parabolic envelope. The forecast of the Bollinger bands indicates we are not likely to see a sustained move higher without a consolidation period or a pullback.

Summary:

  1. Over the weekend, bitcoin saw another test of the lower parabolic curve that proved to be strong support.

  2. After testing the parabolic curve, the market rebounded and has now established a new all-time high.

  3. If this trend continues, bitcoin could see prices in the mid to upper $8,000s before any noticeable resistance stands in the way of the price growth.

Trading and investing in digital assets like bitcoin and ether is highly speculative and comes with many risks. This analysis is for informational purposes and should not be considered investment advice. Statements and financial information on bitcoin Magazine and BTC Media related sites do not necessarily reflect the opinion of BTC Media and should not be construed as an endorsement or recommendation to buy, sell or hold. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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