Unit of Denomination Affects Crypto Correlation, Says Binance
It turns out that correlation rates tend to be higher between the major cryptos when their returns are denominated in US dollars rather than bitcoin, a March 20, 2019 from Binance shows.
Correlation and Causation
At this point in the industry, it is clear that there is a between the prices of various cryptocurrencies. When bitcoin saw its peak of almost $20,000 in 2017, all the major cryptos also saw a rise and the same effect was seen when bitcoin the most recent bear market.
However, according to a new report by Binance that was on March 20, 2019, the correlation between the major cryptos increased when looked at in dollar terms but decreased when looked at in terms of bitcoin. The study looked at price trends in the crypto market from the last major bull run in 2017 to the most recent bear run of 2018 to now.
The Findings
The report was able to determine that the movement of cryptos in terms of price is determined not only by the price of bitcoin but how their returns are denominated.
Over the period of December 2018 to , all the top 30 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization were highly correlated. However, bitcoin saw the highest level of correlations in relation to all the others and thus, is considered the bellwether of the industry.
That said, the levels of correlation between the top 30 cryptos by market capitalization actually fell when the returns were denominated in bitcoin for the last three months. When these figures are compared to those of late 2017, it is apparent that 2017 saw higher levels of correlation.
In contrast, when the returns on the various cryptos are denominated in US dollars, the levels of correlations among the top 30 cryptos actually Increase for that same time period rather than decrease. Coincidently, the time period where this increase took place is the same time that stablecoins soared in popularity and bitcoin took a significant hit that it is yet to fully recover from.
More Factors
The report ends by stating that there are two major factors that also play a role in the reported level of correlation among crypto.
The two factors are the Binance effect, in which cryptos listed on the Binance exchange generally show higher levels of correlation, and the consensus mechanism factor, in which the consensus mechanism used affects the level of correlation recorded.
Segregated Witness, or Segwit, has finally been activated by a super majority of the current hashpower on the bitcoin network. Segwit fixes many bugs currently in the protocol, and allows for some scaling using an effective blocksize increase.
Almost two years of debate
In December of 2015, the source code for (Segwit) was released. It was meant as a fix for the ever-problematic transaction malleability bug, which allowed for someone to change one or two characters of a transaction’s ID before it was cemented into the blockchain. Along with that, it provided a method of scaling bitcoin. Doing away with the concept of a blocksize, a new metric was made called blockweight.
For years the software was not added to the bitcoin protocol as it never garnered the necessary 95% of the hashpower needed to activate. It was to be implemented though means of a softfork, which meant it would comply with all currently consensus rules and be backwards compatible with those running old software and did not wish to upgrade.
Whether you believe that Segwit was a direct result of the grassroot approach of BIP148 forced miners to finally activate it after all this time, or the New York Agreement was the reason everyone came together to signal for Segwit, it is finally here.
A second BIP was released weeks ago to lower the activation threshold to 80% of the hashpower, but even with the lowered bar Segwit still achieved around 97% signaling and locked in during the beginning of August.
After the official lock-in period, the network allowed for two weeks to provide grade period of sorts for people to upgrade their software to work with Segwit.
How Segwit Works
There has been a ton of misinformation about Segwit, so this article will hopefully clear some things up of how it actually works. As stated earlier the whole idea of a blocksize has been gotten rid of. Instead, the network will now use blockweight.
There’s two types of data that are contained in a transaction. Firstly, there is actual transaction data, such as the address the coins are being sent to. Then there is the witness data, which is all the information that is only needed when the transaction is confirmed, and then that data is essentially never used again.
Segwit provides a “discount” to the witness data, and once committed to the blockchain it gets pruned. These 1000 1KB transactions would obviously fill the current blocksize of 1MB, but remember blocksize isn’t even a metric any more. It’s been replaced by blockweight, the new limit of which will be set at 4,000,000 “units.”
The way the new unit system works is the number of units in a transaction is simply the number of bytes of transaction data multiplied by four. Witness data is, as said before, discounted. The bytes of the witness data are essentially a direct translation to units at a 1:1 rate.
So, for example, let’s say there’s 1000 transactions in the mempool, all at 1KB of data. Now let’s say in each of the transactions, 400 bytes is witness data and the other 600 bytes is transaction data. The 600 bytes for transaction data is now worth 2,400 units, while the witness data is now worth 400 units giving the whole transaction a weight of 2,800 units. All of these transactions together will only take up 2,800,000 of the 4,000,000 units, leaving room for more transactions.
Once the transaction is confirmed by the network, the not needed witness data will be pruned off the blockchain, to save storage space and decrease bandwidth use.
How Do I Actually Use SegWit?
For those of you expecting an immediate sign that Segwit is helping everything, I’m sorry to let you down. In reality, it could be weeks or even months before Segwit really starts to have widespread adoption.
Segwit transactions can only be sent from Segwit addresses. So, every single address that currently contains coins would have to send them to a Segwit address before we see the full effect of the upgrade. And even then, there could be a decent chunk of users who still don’t trust Segwit and don’t want to use it. Which is perfectly fine, that’s the point of a softfork. It doesn’t force users who don’t agree to it to upgrade to it.
For you to use segwit and send segwit transactions, you’ll need to send your coins to wallet that generates Segwit addresses. Otherwise, it will just be a normal transaction.
Moving forward, Segwit was an important setup to the upgrading and scaling of the bitcoin network, which has been woefully overloaded in the past several months. Segwit opens the door to better implementation of the , which can allow for transactions to be sent off chain for pennies.
Coming in November, the second half of the New York Agreement is set to take place calling for a doubling of the blockweight to even further scale the network though means of a hardfork.
Will you be using segwit from here on in? How do you think this will effect the network? Let us know in the comments below!
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