Here are the main takeaways from our analysis and some screenshots of our solution. All the analytics shown are provided in real-time to our clients and partners. You are welcome to reach out if you would like to learn more.
- The order was FIAT to digital assets. It started on Monday with BTC_EUR on Kraken and Coinbase, later followed by BTC_USD on Bitfinex.
- The volume then increased further early Tuesday on Kraken, Coinbase, Bitstamp, and Bitfinex on BTC_USD, BTC_EUR, and BTC_USDT. Then a volume increase across all exchanges later on Tuesday.
- The BTC volume surge spread to BCH and LTC pairs first through BCH_BTC and LTC_BTC. BCH and LTC appreciated approximately 100% and 50% respectively in two days.
- The trading volume on Tuesday (April 2) morning at HK time was abnormally high, including on US exchanges. We cannot conclude that the buy order was placed in Asia, yet investors in Asia seem to have quickly reacted to the price surge.
- US exchanges and Bitfinex gained volume at the expense of Binance which momentarily lost 10% of its market share.
- Additional analyses show that BTC on-chain activity increased a few days before the event, and ETH inflow on top exchanges increased right after the event.
Most of the exchanges across the US, Asia, and Europe display a strong volume increase since April 2. Total volume almost doubled from its historical average.
Figure 1: Screenshot of Merkle Solution. Volume trend for exchanges of known volumes computed across all pairs listed on the exchanges.
The buy pressure started with BTC_EUR on Monday mid-day ET, then BTC_USD and BTC_USDT followed on Monday evening ET (blue dots on Figure 2). By using the visualization on Figure 2 filtered per exchange we would see that Kraken and led with BTC_EUR and BTC_USD, later followed by Bitfinex on BTC_USD. Bitstamp’s volume on BTC_EUR and BTC_USD reacted with a delay.
Later on Tuesday, BCH and LTC pairs saw a volume increase with BCH_BTC and LTC_BTC first, and later the USD and USDT denominated pairs. BCH and LTC appreciated respectively by 100% and 50% in the last two days.
Figure 2: Screenshot of Merkle Solution. Market share growth of top pairs with or BCH as a quote asset.
A change in volume patterns hints that the trigger for the volume surge came from Asia. On Tuesday, we saw a surge in volume at 8pm ET which corresponds to the end of day on the US West coast. This pattern is common, yet it is usually followed by a few hours of calm on US exchanges. Instead, we saw a sustained volume across exchanges at the opening of the HK market.
Figure 3: Screenshot of Merkle Solution. Market share growth of top pairs with or BCH as a quote asset.
lost 10% market share in the rally, while most of its competitors won, and particularly Bitfinex, Kraken, , and Bitstamp (Figure 4). Figure 4 shows per period the market share growth, i.e., what exchange is gaining market share against its peers.
To a lesser extent, lost market share at the benefit of Gemini, Poloniex (Circle), and Bitflyer. Figure 5 shows that this trend started on Sunday after a couple of successful days for (and before the $100MN order on Tuesday).
Figure 4: Screenshot of Merkle Solution. Breakdown of market share for exchanges of known volumes, across all pairs listed on the exchanges.
Figure 5: Screenshot of Merkle Solution. Market share growth every 6 hours for exchanges of known volumes, across all pairs listed on the exchanges.
Disclaimer: the exchanges in scope for these analyses are those which are known to represent a large share of the real global volume
Louis Baudoin, CEO
Published at Tue, 09 Apr 2019 14:16:05 +0000
