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The aim of this Monthly chart is to mainly track the timing of the end of the Bear Market expected around May-June 2019 and the start of a new multiyear uptrend through the next Megabull. Preferably, remains within the old as the blue projection shows. Note we are not expecting to follow exactly that exact path, the is just for reference.
Market Sentiment:
The sentiment is clearly as the Bear Market has resumed
The Bear Market ends around May-June 2019 then a new multi-year bull trend starts which culminates in a Megabull that ends around May 2022 at a maximum of $500,000 per (assuming Crypto is fully mainstream + increased mass adoption).
Technical Analysis:
In September 2018, we published a detailed analysis internally to our clients on the potential Bear Market continuation (as the 12H 1D 3D 1W tight bands squeezed tight for a big move) should the Monthly Candle close below the monthly support and the Monthly Momentum print a red candle. Fast forward two and a month forward, our stoploss at $6,090 was hit and both conditions were fulfilled on top of many signals that the Bear Market flashed before the break down:
These signals are summarized below:
1. Continuation Pattern through with head at $8,516 and target of $3,860-3,687
2. 200EMA 3D Death Cross – November 15
3. Monthly Momentum Death Cross (this analysis on the momentum) – October 1
4. Monthly Midband Bear Cross – November 1
5. The latest weekly close which cancelled the Wyckoff Spring Scenario – November 18
That said, lets discuss only point 3 by giving you some historical information on it
History of the Monthly Momentum Death Cross:
Looking at our chart, we notice that the Monthly Momentum has printed two candles for a second consecutive month and that has failed to close above the Monthly Midband at $6,380-6,400 and instead build a new strong Monthly Resistance at $6,640-6,700. Based on this observation, our expectation for the next few months was to remain cautious of the Bear Market continuation for 6 more months by keeping tight stoploss at $6,090 and look for the break down.
How did we make the assumption that the Bear Market can resume another 6 months?
Well simply by looking back at the last time the same pattern happened which is back in October 2014-January 2015. Looking at that range, we notice that the Monthly Midband Bear cross occurred on October 2014 followed by a Monthly Momentum Death Cross on December 2014-January 2015. Consequently, the Market went from $414 to $170 losing roughly another 40-50%.
Compared to the current market action, we are expecting a similar 40-50% loss with a drop from $6,544 towards the $3,926-3,300 range where we will be looking to buy.
Buy/Support:
Based on , Analysis and the above, we see the Bear Market bottoming potentially at the below levels which would be good buy areas:
$4,250-4,000 – with potential wick to $3,860-3,687 (1W will be oversold at 30 + target of ) – Potential Bottom #1
$3,000 – with potential wick to $2,600-2,440 – Potential Bottom #2
Future Megabull Potential Sell/Resistances:
$29,000-30,000
$68,000-69,862
$100,000-117,864 – Potential All-Time-High
$120,000-125,000
$200,000-220,000
$490,000-500,000 – Maximum potential All-Time-High Target in May 2022
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Published at Tue, 20 Nov 2018 03:13:44 +0000
