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Despite the panicky “reverse engines!” dynamic last Friday in the US rates market – with popular “reflation” trade expressions (which had been seeing vicious unwinds) suddenly breathing new life as Fed’s Dudley clarified his “misconstrued” comments on “little pause” with short-term rates hiking – RBC’s head of cros asset strategy Charlie McElligott points out that 5y5y inflation remains stuck, EDZ7/8 curve is flattening again, and the EDZ789 butterfly too is again fading.
Nominal UST yields continue to be gravitationally ‘held’ around this low 2.30s level, ahead of today’s 10Y sale later…
SUMMARY:
Last Friday’s ‘rates reversals’ post Dudley “clarification” not driving “reflation” follow-through across-assets.
Still strong / expansive data (although signs of mean-reversion with regards to fewer ‘beats’ / more ‘misses’) proving unable to break the rates ‘range trade.’
Fiscal / tax policy sentiment trending ‘worse,’ supporting UST ‘bid’ in conjunction with geopolitics.
Crude the lone “reflation” stand-out but unable to single-handedly lift risk-assets higher against this backdrop.
Key proxies going-forward: $/Y ‘breaking lower’ again will be a key ‘leading indicator’ with regards to risk-appetite, especially with regards to Asian sentiment and its impact on US rates–while 5Y breakevens are indicating lack of ‘belief’ in US inflation ‘stickiness.’ Both led S&P ahead ahead of its August / September ‘fade’ last year as well.
