SEC’s Valerie A. Szczepanik: Crypto Spring “is Going to Come”

Valerie A. Szczepanik, Senior Advisor for Digital Assets and Innovation at the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is confident that very soon the crypto market will overcome the winter that began during 2018.

Speaking at the SXSW in Austin, Texas, Ms. Szczepanik commented that over time, the SEC is becoming clearer about the nature of cryptocurrencies and the type of treatment they should give to all the different kind of digital assets. This clarity in the criteria of the regulatory agencies will directly result in a boost to the crypto markets by increasing the safety and confidence of users:

I do think if we hope to smell the crypto spring in the air, it will take people walking with the regulators … But I do think the spring is going to come.

SEC is Working Hard (But Slowly)

Over the preceding months, administrative changes within the SEC show to be yielding positive results. The new commissioners have a more proactive stance and suggest to be aligned with the vision of other senior U.S. government officials who see cryptocurrencies as an opportunity to boost the country’s economic and commercial system.

However, she is aware that the work is gradual and that it will probably be difficult for the regulatory bodies to keep pace with the various technological initiatives that are flourishing today thanks to the blockchain hype. She explained that a slow but successful work is better than a fast but deficient one:

I think if you were to propose a new regime of regulations in a precipitous way without really studying it, you might end up steering the technology one way or another.

For the community of cryptocurrency users, the SEC plays a particularly relevant role in two scenarios that have sparked high expectations for users and investors:

Determine whether or not a particular token or ICO is a security by nature. This has taken on particular relevance in well-known cases such as Ethereum and XRP.
Determine if there are appropriate conditions to approve a crypto ETF. This is especially important for the bitcoin community (BTC) as to date all attempts have been unsuccessful.

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Published at Sat, 16 Mar 2019 21:11:07 +0000

August 30, 2017

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Watching World Events and “Three Pushes to a High”

BTC-USD is up 160% in the 6 weeks since it last bottomed out at around $1800. The $2850 growth marks the sixth week in a row of new highs and aggressive bull runs as bitcoin sits upon its current all-time high in the $4600s. One can’t help but wonder where the top of this run lies; Goldman Sachs is calling the top of the bull run at around $4800.

Historically, during times of war and political uncertainty, investors tend to seek financial safe havens in precious metals and other long-lasting, stable investment vehicles. Yesterday, North Korea made an aggressive move toward Japan by launching a missile over Japanese airspace. Within hours of the news hitting the public, bitcoin saw massive price growth, thus establishing, once again, a new all-time high:

Figure 1: BTC-USD, 6 Hour Candles, Bitfinex, Volume Spike Post-news Release

After an entire week of decreasing volume, BTC-USD saw a spike in buy volume once the news of North Korea’s aggression hit the public. This is one of several bullish moves in the recent series of news events following North Korean aggression. As of the time of this article, Japan has yet to formally respond to this act of aggression, and one can speculate that bitcoin will likely continue to see price growth as the political uncertainty continues to grow.

On the macro scale, bitcoin is showing signs of bullish exhaustion despite the push to greater highs:

Figure 2: BTC-USD, 1-Day Candles, Bitfinex, Signs of Bullish Exhaustion

Although there is a good argument for bitcoin price growth on just fundamental analysis of the North Korean situation alone, it’s important to remain objective in our analysis. There are three signs of bullish exhaustion in the macro trend of this BTC-USD market.

Although bitcoin is making new price highs, on the 1-day candle trend the RSI is failing to make a new high (shown in yellow) — this activity is called “divergence” and shows a decrease in bullish momentum. Additionally, although the 6-hour volume made a significant impact on the market, the 1-day volume is currently failing to make any significant impact on the overall trend (shown in blue).

Lastly and most significantly, the 1-day Bollinger Bands (shown in pink) have begun to go completely horizontal and are now beginning to actually curve downward.

The current Bollinger Band trend accompanied by the bullish momentum loss is pushing BTC-USD into a potential reversal pattern known as “Three Pushes to a High.” Basic characteristics of this pattern are:

Narrowing Bollinger Bands upon the advance of each high;
Momentum loss on various indicators;
Continued divergence across all three highs.

Currently, the “Three Pushes to a High” reversal has yet to be confirmed and is certainly not in a tradable condition, but it is something that every bitcoin trader should consider on the macro trend of this market.

Since the run from $1800, well established Fibonacci Retracement lines have revealed themselves on the market:

Figure 3: BTC-USD, 6 Hour Candles, Bitfinex, Macro Support Lines

There is very strong support on the 23% line, as the market consolidated for about a week at those values. If our current price level proves to be the top of this run, a possible retracement might occur. Should a retracement occur, Figure 3 will be an important reference in order to see, on a macro scale, where the support levels lie and where potential market entry and exits will exist.

Summary:

Uncertainty surrounding Japan’s response to North Korean aggression reveals investor interest in bitcoin;
Technical indicators show the market is possibly approaching its top on the macro-trend;
Support lines exist on the Fibonacci Retracement values shown in Figure 3.

Trading and investing in digital assets like bitcoin, bitcoin cash and ether is highly speculative and comes with many risks. This analysis is for informational purposes and should not be considered investment advice. Statements and financial information on bitcoin Magazine and BTC Media related sites do not necessarily reflect the opinion of BTC Media and should not be construed as an endorsement or recommendation to buy, sell or hold. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

The post Bitcoin Price Analysis: Watching World Events and “Three Pushes to a High” appeared first on Bitcoin Magazine.

SEC’s Valerie A. Szczepanik: Crypto Spring “is Going to Come”

SEC is Working Hard (But Slowly)

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