April 10, 2026

Capitalizations Index – B ∞/21M

Saturday 1st December

weekly global research
Saturday 1st December
bitcoin

Bitcoin_logo_small-150x150

1 bitcoin = $4,175
Market Cap = $73 billion

 

bitcoin’s Daily Transfer Volume Close to Overtaking MasterCard’s

bitcoin moved $8 billion in the past 24 hours while MasterCard averages $11 billion a day.

In their recent quarterly report, MasterCard said they processed $4.4 trillion in the year to date, while bitcoin would be at about $3 trillion on a yearly basis if we extrapolate from the daily $8 billion – a level that is fairly common for BTC.

Ethereum comes a very distant second among cryptos, transferring “just” $600 million in the past 24 hours, bringing it to a yearly total of circa quarter of a trillion.

We can’t see Ripple’s data as they’re not really a public blockchain – or a blockchain at all – but all cryptos in combination probably transfer about as much value as MasterCard despite having a far lower capacity in transactions per second.

Saturday 1st december

Visa handles far more at about $30 billion a day or $11 trillion a year according to their self-disclosed stats. That’s with a capacity of 65,000 transactions a second.

bitcoin can handle only about 7 tx/s on chain, or about 0.01% of Visa’s. Yet bitcoin transfers about 25% of Visa’s amount of value processing.

While credit cards handle small transactions, the media value of a bitcoin transfer is about $400, with the average being circa $27,000.

Trustnodes

 

Fiat Backlash

One of the Eurozone’s Top Central Bankers Calls bitcoin “The Evil Spawn of the Financial Crisis” – Financial Times

Banco de Mexico, attacking bitcoin on many fronts. As of last month, you must have a bank account to buy bitcoin. Using cash will be considered money laundering. – Rick

———————————————–

Anti-bitcoin ideologues are getting increasingly violent.

Why can’t they peacefully advocate for their worldview like we do?

Pierre Rochard

 

 

MINING
Hash Rate Declines Dramatically

In recent days, the price of bitcoin has been falling abruptly, to a level where a lot of the mining hardware that was produced and put online in 2018 is no longer profitable to operate.

The bitcoin hashrate has nearly halved over this period (from a high point of 62 million TH/s to a low of 34 million TH/s a couple of days ago), meaning that almost half of the total mining hardware that was operating in October has been brought offline.

François Chollet

 

 

CRYPTO ASSETS
Saturday 1st december
Market Cap = $135 billion

 

Monero

Saturday 1st december

At LA Cybersecurity Summit today, the FBI guy on the panel repeatedly mentioned that they can easily trace bitcoin, but Monero is not traceable and a huge problem for them.

It was in reference to cryptolocker style attacks — he said they usually take payment in bitcoin (which they can trace), but convert it to Monero at which point the trail ends because they cannot trace it. This was FBI Special Agent Justin Vallese.

Daniel Rice

 

Crackdown on Exchanges
Binance

Binance recently announced our partnership with Refinitiv, a KYC services provider. This partnership was formed more than a month after Binance partnered with Chainalysis for cryptocurrency compliance and investigation services. – Binance

 

Bitmex

Bitmex been liquidating non compaliant countries’s account holders. – CryptoKarma

 

Hodl Hodl

“We officially started blocking all US citizens/residents both by ip and by preventing offers for the US locations from being created.”

——————————————-

“Decentralized” Exchanges
IDEX

First DEX implements KYC… “In addition to IP blocking, IDEX will be implementing KYC/AML policies in order to comply with sanctions and money laundering laws”. – Erik Voorhees

 

Radar Relay (0x Relayer)

Radar Relay bows to regulatory pressure from FinCen and implements KYC/AML checks required for Money Services Business. – Lawson Baker

 

Shapeshift is dead: will require KYC/AML compliance from all users by the end of the year.

Next up: “DEXs” succumb as well. I bet at least one of IDEX, EtherDelta, Bancor, 0x add KYC restrictions by EoY 2019.

Udi Wertheimer, 4th September 2018

 

 

COMPANIES / PROJECTS / PRODUCTS
Microsoft Now the Biggest Company in the World

Since Satya Nadella became CEO, Microsoft has almost tripled its market cap to $850B+, and on Friday it replaced Apple as the world’s most valuable company. – Techmeme

 

Sci-Hub

Sci Hub just keeps growing. It’s Napster for science: any paper instantly for free. – Balaji S. Srinivasan

Image result for scihub

Sci-Hub can instantly provide access to more than two-thirds of all scholarly articles

For some major publishers, such as Elsevier, more than 97% of their catalog of journal articles is being stored on Sci-Hub’s servers—meaning they can be accessed there for free.

Sci-Hub was able to fulfill requests 99% of the time—that suggests the 31% of articles that aren’t covered by Sci-Hub are things that people really aren’t requesting.

Lindsay McKenzie

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Each legal challenge resulted in a spike in Google searches [for the site], which suggests the challenges are basically generating free advertising for Sci-Hub. I think the suits are not going to stop Sci-Hub.

This is the beginning of the end for subscription scholarly publishing. I think it is at this point inevitable that the subscription model is going to fail and more open models will be necessitated.

– Daniel Himmelstein

———————————-

Sci Hub has probably put us years ahead with our tech and that will yield compound returns in perpetuity.

I imagine that eventually a paper that cannot be accessed by all will be considered pseudoscience. No wonder that the most rigorous science (physics) goes straight to arXiv.

Michael Chapiro

Saturday 1st december

Publisher compels Swedish ISP to block Sci-Hub.

Swedish ISP responds by also blocking publisher’s website.

John Backus

 

SpaceX This Year

We launched Falcon Heavy.

We launched version five of Falcon 9.

We were able to re-fly a rocket three times, which is great.

Next year, the exciting things are we’re gonna be launching astronauts for the first time to the space station. It’ll be the first time a vehicle from the United States launches astronauts into orbit since the Space Shuttle.

Elon Musk

 

 

THE ASCENT OF MAN
Mars Landing

The InSight lander will study the interior of Mars and listen for Masquakes. – NASA

Saturday 1st december

NASA pulled off its eighth landing of a spacecraft on the surface of the Red Planet as the world watched on Monday.

The first few things the InSight lander did after its hot and harrowing six-minute descent through the Martian atmosphere included snapping a dusty but still remarkable photo, then delivering a clear image of its landing site and beginning to unfurl its solar arrays.

“With the arrays providing the energy, we are well on our way to thoroughly investigate what’s inside of Mars for the very first time,” Tom Hoffman, InSight’s project manager at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, said.

Saturday 1st december

InSight Mars lander acquired this image using its robotic arm-mounted, Instrument Deployment Camera (IDC).

Elizabeth Barrett, who heads InSight’s instrument operations, told reporters that the process of setting the instruments on the ground alone will take two to three months, followed by another month or two to drill and begin getting science data back.

“Landing was thrilling, but I’m looking forward to the drilling ,” InSight principal investigator Bruce Banerdt said in a statement.

The probes and “mole” will dig as deep as 16 feet into the planet to measure internal temperature and to study Mars’ guts. – Eric Mack

 

Hyper Augmented Reality Informed by the Physical World on an Ongoing Basis.

People will be increasingly living in VR.

VR, telepresence, universal constructors…

Living in VR doesn’t mean retreat from the physical world [They could always observe the world in VR within the VR.] Even today, most astronomers are not physically located at their telescopes.

David Deutsch

 

5G Holographic Call

Saturday 1st december

Anne O’Leary, CEO of Vodafone Ireland, high-fiving Max Gasparroni, who was in Germany, using fully standardised 5G technology while on the first Irish international holographic call. – Pádraig Hoare

 

Volumetric Displays: 3D Moving Images That Appear to Float in Thin Air

Alex Hein: 3D holograms aren’t happening till the 2030s

Mike Trites: We’re REAL close though

 

Saturday 1st december

Follow me on Twitter @leebanfield1

bitcoin1FEZ3uksw8cjuwmLxaPtDePAr27S4q49CW

 

Saturday 1st december

 

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Op-ed: Bitcoin Is Not a Bubble; It's in an S-Curve and It's Just Getting Started

Op-ed: Bitcoin Is Not a Bubble; It's in an S-Curve and It's Just Getting Started

One of the most intriguing stories underpinning the recent rise of bitcoin prices is how financial institutions will interact with the currency.

The upcoming CBOE futures market is going to open the door for Wall Street giants to participate in the market. That could spell moon or doom for bitcoin, and everyone is speculating on what may happen next.

It is this Wall Street/BTC interaction (phenomenon) that may be driving the unbelievable price spike of the past few days — at least partially.

On the macro scale, however, we may be witnessing a more grand pattern forming; a price-correlated S-curve.

The S-curve is the classic adoption curve applied to the advent of new technologies. As a percentage of the population, adoption looks like a lag phase where the technology is utilized by the innovators of said technology, followed by an early adoption phase led by people who often take risks in order to be the first movers in a space. After the early adopter phase (~16% of the population is now participating), there comes a great “tipping point” where the wide use of the technology seems inevitable. The tipping point gives rise to the “Early Majority” joining in on the fun, followed by the late majority and, finally, the holdouts who allow the top of the S to asymptotically approach total adoption. The curve, as a factor of time and adoption, looks sort of like the following:

Screen_Shot_2017-12-08_at_9.56.44_AM.png

This curve correlates nicely with adoption of some of the greatest technological innovations in our recent history:

Screen_Shot_2017-12-08_at_9.57.15_AM.png

Some important things to note is that this is just U.S. adoption. Much of the world lagged behind the U.S. in the consumer appliance boom of the 1900s. All of these curves, however steep, do follow the same S-curve trend fairly nicely.

So what could that mean for bitcoin? It’s difficult to choose a metric to define bitcoin adoption, and, in fact, there are disputes about if one metric accurately captures it. However, for simplicity I’ll highlight Google searches for bitcoin and Coinbase user count as microcosms of the global adoption trend.

google search

Screen_Shot_2017-12-08_at_9.58.02_AM.png(from CNBC)

This seems to show a very similar pattern to what could be the transitional phase between “innovators” and “Early Adopters.” Just to harken back to the earlier statement though — it’s very difficult to put a number on bitcoin adoption.

So why is this remarkable? bitcoin may be the first “buyable” S-curve. Because this is a capped-supply currency, more users adopting and using it necessitates an increase in price. Whether that correlation is even reflective of the current price action is a practically unanswerable question, and the obvious leaning would be towards there being a speculative additional value. However, with an increase in adoption, there seems to be a floor rising up to catch whatever “bubble burst” might occur, if and when it happens.

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

“Eternal September” is the phrase used to describe September of 1993, when widespread internet adoption began to look inevitable. It occured after AOL began a mailing campaign offering free trials of its internet service, leading to an influx of internet users that has since never ended. Hence “Eternal September.”

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

To compare bitcoin’s adoption to its complement — the internet — this may very well be the “Eternal September” episode for bitcoin.

If the S-curve adoption theory applies to bitcoin, then buckle up. I won’t pretend to be able to predict a spot price, but I will say I think we may be sitting close to another order of magnitude this time next year.

See y’all on the moon.

Corollary: Bulls sound smart in bull markets. We may look back and laugh at this thought, or it may hold true for years to come. Time will tell. ‘Til then, buy bitcoin.

Trading and investing in digital assets like bitcoin and ether is highly speculative and comes with many risks. This analysis is for informational purposes and should not be considered investment advice. Statements and financial information on bitcoin Magazine and BTC Media related sites do not necessarily reflect the opinion of BTC Media and should not be construed as an endorsement or recommendation to buy, sell or hold. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.


The post Op-ed: Bitcoin Is Not a Bubble; It's in an S-Curve and It's Just Getting Started appeared first on Bitcoin Magazine.

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