RSK: смарт-контракты и мастерноды в разы увеличат ценность биткоина

DISCLAIMER: I apologize in advance for the tables and graphs being in imgur. I have no idea how to input my data so that you can see it in the reddit client and honestly, this is a lot of data. I recommend opening my figures in a new tab as I talk about it so you don’t have to flip back and forth throughout tabs. Now that that’s out of the way, welcome to the show.

I feel like everyone uses or has used Coinpot and the “moon faucets” in order to obtain their first coins. I know that I’m in that stage and I had a lot of questions about it, especially about how often I should claim my faucets. I got various answers but the general sentiment was that there was a certain amount of time (<1 hour) that I should be claiming in order to optimize my gains. As somebody who wanted a definitive answer and to analyze some data in a field that is important to me, I set out for some answers.

To collect my data, I sat in front of my computer while all five of the moon faucets operated. Every minute I would write down the value of the given currency at that specific time. I hoped to gain some sort of curve, as that was what I was told to expect, but my curiosity overcame the ABSOLUTE BOREDOM of sitting there and taking notes on what was going on. I recorded all of the values and after an hour, I came up with this data. This is the general stuff, but I will cut each of the graphs down and analyze each faucet separately. Keep in mind that I am in the Eastern United States, as I hear your region makes a difference.

The Data:

Here's the link with my Raw Data: https://imgur.com/a/6dmmc So that’s a lot of raw numbers, so I’m going to analyze each of the faucets separately.

Dogecoin:

Here's the graph: https://imgur.com/a/khPiM

The jagged line represents the amount of Dogecoin, and the linear line of best fit represents the average rate of Dogecoin, if it were linear. This will become important a little later. What we see here is exactly what I was told to expect: a series of lines which very much represent a curve if we squint our eyes a little. Referring back to the data table, we can see how drastic the reduction of generation is within thirty minutes. From 0 to 2 minutes, we see a growth of .02 doge, and a similar growth of .02 doge in the next 2 minutes elapsed. Eventually however, the generation slows to the point at which we have to wait 7 whole minutes to generate a measly .02 doge. The drip rate went from .01 doge/minute (DpM) to .0028 DpM. That’s a 72 percent decrease in drip rate. If we extend the same analysis to the next 30 minutes, we can observe a further drop to a staggering .002 DpM. This massive decline is exactly what we would have expected.

bitcoin Cash:

Here's the graph: https://imgur.com/a/xwst5

The story is pretty similar with bitcoin Cash. The rate starts relatively high but levels out as time elapses. The first thirty minutes has a linear rate of increase of .000000047 Cash per Minute (CpM) and the back thirty minutes we see a decrease of the rate to exactly .0000000093 BcM, which again is an almost 81% decrease in production from the first 30 minutes.

Dash:

Here's the graph: https://imgur.com/a/RerX7

Is there really anything to say here that is out of the ordinary about these figures? They’re exactly what we figured they’d be, and follow the trend of reducing the rate of acquisition as time elapses. Over the first 30 minutes, the linear rate of Dash per Minute (DpM) is .000000047 , and in the second 30 minutes, the linear rate of acquisition is about .0000000197 DpM. This equates to about a 48 percent decrease in linear acquisition rate.

Litecoin:

Here's the graph: https://imgur.com/a/fJzF6

The Moon Litecoin faucet is the same old same old, with this whole curve going on. The amount of Litecoin gained over an hour (LpM) is shown by the line with a slope of around 8.779x+96.361 LpM. The LpM rate for the first thirty minutes was 12.9 LpM and the rate for the latter 30 was 5.733 LpM. This is about a 56% decline in LpM.

bitcoin:

Here's the last single faucet graph: https://imgur.com/a/gtiLw Last but not least, the Moon bitcoin faucet. All measurements are in Satoshi, because if they were in bitcoin, I wouldn’t be telling you all about how large the amounts of BTC I was making. You know the drill. The bitcoin per minute, of BCpM, of the first 30 minutes is .266 BCpM, and the BCpM of the latter 30 is .133, or a 50% decrease in acquisition rate.

Okay! That was a doozy. Now that we have established that all of the different faucets decrease their rates over time, we need to compare them side by side, to get an idea as to when we should be cashing out. To do this, I went ahead and multiplied all of the data by its respective value in USD, as of March 6th, 2018, at around 4 o’clock. This is what I came up with:

Table: https://imgur.com/a/PyOpP

Graph: https://imgur.com/a/HBnI2

Just a reminder, these are all conversions to USD, so YMMV as to your currency if it happened to be different. There are so many things to talk about this graph. Like what in the world happened to Dash? Why is so little Dash given out through the course of an hour? It also seems very interesting that the Dogecoin, bitcoin Cash, and Litecoin distribution rates are all the same. The bitcoin faucet seems to have the highest rate, which is interesting as well. So what did I learn today?

If I could only run one moon faucet, I should run Moon bitcoin, statistically speaking.

The optimal time to claim coin seems to be around 33 minutes, when the bitcoin kicks up and almost all of the faucets see an increase in production interval.

More data may be needed to further extrapolate this, as the rates are neither linear nor exponential in growth. Averages can be found through linear lines of best fit, but they are poor indicators of eventual decay.

Thanks for reading my writeup! I’f love to hear what you all think. Did you love it? Did you hate it? Is there a fundamental experimental error? Any suggestions for what I should do next? This is a repost of my data and analysis from r/dogecoin but I thought that you guys might appreciate it too.