While common in the bull market, this type of fast move to overbought conditions only has occurred one other time in the bear market. That move was followed by a continuation of the price move higher. Ultimately the price stalled out after a 38% increase from the point where the low was made after the low in the . The range for was $6100 to $8300 that time around and the bear market continued.
If we see similar percentage gains that would take the price all the way to $4500 this time around. While I do not expect this to happen I do believe that we will be able to tell early on in the move by keeping an eye on the as the move unfolds. The , in this case, may serve as an early warning system if the momentum stalls out. If it does I expect to move into a range as described in previous posts.
At the moment may be good for a scalp as it moves higher to around…
- $3750. Following that move I expect it to retreat to around
- $3580 before the final move to
- $3950.
After multiple failed attempts to close the gap to $3260 has now established a range with strong support around $3450 and strong resistance around $3950. This is very close to the range mentioned in my last post, 50$ higher as a result of the failure to close the gap.
The very strong momentum reversal measured on multiple timeframes indicates that we will not likely pull back much prior to the next move higher. I expect that the consolidation flag currently in the making will break to the upside within the next 24 hours, latest Monday morning in Japan and Korea.
It is significant also that the downtrend is now likely invalidated.
This move will also likely mean that there will not be a move to lower lows any time in the near future.
I expect to find resistance at $3950, however, if manages to break above the center of the uptrend shown in the chart, it will likely make a break for $4400 and eventually $4800 after lengthy consolidation.
Published at Sun, 10 Feb 2019 13:47:40 +0000
