At the moment still bouncing in the 3680/3840 range for more than 2 days now. For the rest there is not much that has changed now. So please read previous analysis to be more up to date. Several Alts have made patterns, some above and some below the neckline. Some even went below it and back above it. This all says that actually nobody knows what will happens next. When looking at ETH’, which has been a bit leading the past 2 weeks, we can see the is in full play. So nothing easy to see on this part.
The fact that we were not even able to touch the 3900ish, is not good tbh and a bit disappointing as well.
For bitcoin’s version, i see 2 plays here. The ones we can see on the right.
1) Break above the current range, test the range again and move up to complete the right shoulder of the big . Feb rally
2) Break the range on the downside, find support on that green box and after a day or so slowly move up again where is obviously has to break the 3700 and eventually the 3840 resistance. July rally
OI on Bitmex has been moving up again which is a good sign, showing more interest again at these price, but it doesn’t say anything about if a low is set or not. So it’s useless for the short term.
If we break the 3550/3600, chances will be very big for a retest of the 3300/3350 zone. At the moment i give a break of the 3150 like 20%. Because the rally we had from the lows was so good and strong, with alts being even stronger than bitcoin’. Of course anything is possible in crypto, we all know how emotional this market is, but simply just dropping from here on out, is unlikely. When looking back the 8.5K rally, we can see that did happen. But we were in a much different stage of the market. Since we dropped to the 3K zone since, it’s clear it was the intention of the market back than. Alts were extremely weak back than as well, you probably all remember that. Those conditions are much different this time. The sell during that drop was also different than we can see now.
My biggest doubt is the fact that we made that big drop so fast that day. You all know i was waiting for a bigger correction, because it would fit the picture much better to have a better consolidation/correction phase before starting part 2 of the rally. But a big and quick drop below the 3800, is not what i wanted to see. Should have happened in a few waves and not 1 straight line. So the bigger picture (past 2 months) says up to me. The short term (past week) says down.
So conclusion is, we want to see the current range break up because that would make things much safer. So 3850ish is a clear level to break for the short term. Whatever happens, we do not want to see another dump of like 200/300 points, with . That would be very bad. So at the moment, anything below the 3850 is too much risk. That one really has to break soon to able to get a bit again. Until then, i would say, go enjoy these holiday’s and watch how things go first before taking any positions. I know i will 🙂
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Previous analysis:
Published at Thu, 27 Dec 2018 16:56:12 +0000
