NEM Price Rebounds to Two-Month High Following Coincheck Relisting
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The price of NEM tokens (XEM) has risen some since Japanese exchange that it would once again allow trading of the token, which was suspended after a hack at the exchange led to a more than half-billion dollars in tokens being stolen and .
The XEM price started picking up momentum just before the announcement. It presently sits at almost 12 cents per token with a market capitalization of nearly $1 billion, a far cry from its January high (which had built up from momentous trading throughout last December) of nearly $1.50.
Source: coinmarketcap
NEM is 17th on the current list of tokens by market capitalization. It hit a high of $0.114 overnight, but currently sits about .007 less than that, at time of writing being worth $0.107375, marking a 16 percent gain. It beats out notable contenders like zcash by hundreds of millions of dollars.
It is always pertinent to mention in these things that liquidity may or may not exist for the total market capitalization of a given token. Only those actively and widely traded against fiat currencies can accurately be reported as having this or that market capitalization. In terms of tokens which are largely traded against larger cryptos, the reality of their market capitalization is in fact hard to gauge — prices tend to drop astronomically when sales begin to cascade. Nevertheless, that it retains a moving token a price over 10 cents despite its past problems and in the face of a massive supply (1 shy of 9 billion units) is important.
New Economy Movement
The New Economy Movement is an entirely original blockchain codebase which introduced the concept of Proof of Importance, “not only rewards those with a large account balance, but also takes into account how much they transact to others and who they transact with.”
Regardless of the token price, the business end of NEM has kept up operations and entered into several strategic partnerships, including with and Portal network. They have also created a product called , which is supposed to be some kind of decentralized news gathering/publishing service.
Over the last week, the BTC-USD market has seen some major price swings. At one point, the price nearly reached $4500 only to see it pull back down to the low $4100s. And now, within two days, the price has topped back out in the low $4400s. There has been some major chop and seemingly erratic dumps and price hikes, but overall there seems to be a common upward trent within the macro market movements:
Since the bottom of the bear run last month, bitcoin has seen several rallies that have continued along a generally positive trend. The figure above shows a trend of higher highs, higher lows and an upper/lower boundary that is converging. This type of price activity is called a rising wedge.
Coupled with this price growth is a trend of decreasing volume throughout the length of the wedge. A rising wedge is generally a bearish trend that shows weakening bullish pressure as each subsequent rally becomes smaller and smaller. As the price corrects, there are rallies that bring the price to new highs, but ultimately rally on smaller and smaller volume.
As of the time of this article, the latest rally has failed to make a new high in the low $4400s. A breakdown of this wedge could lead to a substantial price drop of approximately $500 below the point of breakdown. The approximate price target would be around $3700.
Although rising wedges are bearish in nature, that doesn’t mean new highs aren’t in store for bitcoin. The macro trend is currently showing a potential bearish move, but there is still some strength in the market. The market is currently trending above the 50 EMA and 200 EMA which, by many standards, is representative of a trending bullish market. Although the price is trending upward and the overall EMA signals are showing potential upward continuation, there are pretty clear signs of bullish exhaustion on the macro scale:
As stated earlier, the rising wedge is paired with decreasing volume which is a clear giveaway that upward momentum is waning. To complement this exhaustion, the RSI and MACD are showing clear signs of bearish divergence in the current market and are demonstrating a lack of the bullish momentum necessary to sustain a bull market.
If the rising wedge breaks to the bottom, we can expect the support levels to lie on the Fibonacci Retracement values shown above. The ultimate price target of the rising wedge would have BTC-USD testing the 50% retracement values.
On a very, very macro scale, there are clear signs of overall bullish exhaustion since the beginning of its run from the low $1000s:
Two very clear indicators of bullish momentum loss lie on the RSI and the MACD. The price of bitcoin has pushed to strong, new highs but it has left the momentum indicators weakening. The RSI is showing strong macro divergence, and the MACD is on the verge of flipping bearish for the first time since the ETF was denied back in April.
It’s not hard to argue that bitcoin has seen heavy price growth and needs a little room to breath. It is entirely possible the market won’t see any strong pullback and it may go sideways. However, in the event that a sustained market pulls the price down, we can expect to find support along the midline of the Bollinger Bands in the low $3000s. It’s important that the above chart and market implications of this macro divergence are occurring on candles that are one week. So, while this doesn’t mean the market will just suddenly plummet, it is important to understand that a substantial price drop could be in bitcoin’s future.
Even though I gave plenty of bearish arguments, it should be noted that these predictions are on a macro scale, and the immediate trend is showing strong support along the 50 and 200 EMAs. The market is bullish until proven otherwise. As the saying goes: “the trend is your friend.” bitcoin has had one heck of a year so far, but I think it’s important to point out the clear signs of a macro bullish exhaustion:
Summary:
bitcoin is finding support and showing a bullish trend along the 50 and 200 EMAs.
On a macro level, the trend is pushing upward but is showing a potential bearish move if the market breaks out of the rising wedge identified in Figure 1.
A breakout of this wedge would have its price target in the $3700s.
Trading and investing in digital assets like bitcoin, bitcoin cash and ether is highly speculative and comes with many risks. This analysis is for informational purposes and should not be considered investment advice. Statements and financial information on bitcoin Magazine and BTC Media related sites do not necessarily reflect the opinion of BTC Media and should not be construed as an endorsement or recommendation to buy, sell or hold. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Figure 1: BTC-USD, 4-Hour Candles, Bitfinex, Macro Trend
Figure 2: BTC-USD, 4-Hour Candles, Bitfinex, Bullish Exhaustion
Figure 3: BTC-USD, 1-Week Candles, Bitfinex, Macro Bullish Exhaustion
