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The Nueva School
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Markit PMI vs. ISM Fantasyland GDP Projection: Stagflation Lite?
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The discrepancy between the ISM’s and Markit’s assessment of the economy widened today.
Both reports agree that cost inflation is rising quickly despite moderation in the price of oil.
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The ISM noted 17 out of the 18 industries reported growth in March.
Here’s the statement that caught my eye: “The past relationship between the PMI® and the overall economy indicates that the average PMI® for January through March (57 percent) corresponds to a 4.3 percent increase in real gross domestic product on an annualized basis.”
On an over-under basis, I will take “the under” as in way under.
Markit Key Findings
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