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Recent selloff resulted in the massive panic; crashed by 33% during past 6 days, but most of the altcoins have experienced even steeper decline. Such a freewill clearly causing panic among average investors, forcing them to liquidate in order to protect the investment.
But what if, this is a trap created by institutions, which first take out all stop losses and then perform a heavy buying? Is this “stop loss kick out” move creates a massive long term buying opportunity? Throughout the history, crashes and uncertain times where the most interesting in terms of buying as well as selling opportunities. Truly, this is a great time for speculation in either direction. The most interesting thing about the panic sell, which is going through, is that these uncertain times are usually when smart money may start coming in.
What is important to note is that has reached the bottom of the pattern. At the same time price rejected two Fibonacci levels at $4300 area. First, failed to break below the long term 78.6% Fibs, which is located at $4387. Second, price bounced cleanly off the $4300 level, that is a 161.8% Fibs, applied to the June 22 – July 24 corrective wave up. Finally, under the very heavy selling , failed to break double Fibonacci support and downtrend .
The $4300 area currently represents a very strong support, but still, spikes below should be expected. BTC/USD in the near term future could be spiking towards the $4200 area, although only daily, or even weekly close below the lower of the could confirm continuation of the downtrend.
Upon the breakout, next support is seen at $3k physiological level, followed by the $2400-2600 Fibonacci . Of course, considering the heavy downtrend, the probability of continuation usually is higher than correction or a trend reversal. But on the other hand, huge interest in the Blockchain technology might spike at any time once again.
For that, we need to look into the potential reversal scenario. At the current stage the bounce off the $4300 support has been very clean, which might result in a correctional move towards the $5200 or even $7780 . But only break above the $7780 could be taken as first serious declaration of the potential trend reversal.
Ask yourself a question; if trend is reversing, what will happen to the price of Altcoins?
Published at Wed, 21 Nov 2018 11:38:45 +0000
