Short term analysis. Sloppy structure has formed. Market seems fairly exhausted… but I am not fully convinced that we have hit the bottom yet. Many people, including myself, are still looking for a ‘capitulation’ event to unfold. I believe the current setup is favorable for such an event to happen. Thus far, has found support right above 3k, and has rallied off of it to form a wave 4. The pattern will be confirmed, and a capitulation/last resort panic selling event will most likely trigger when current rally begins correcting and breaks down below 3k. At this point any inexperienced hodlers who have been holding on by a thread will begin irrationally selling… convinced will never stop going down. In terms of downside targets… it is hard to tell. My personal opinion is anywhere between 2500-2800. If true panic selling gets triggered, we could even get a few flash crash candles print down to 2k. If this event does indeed occur, and a new low is made, I will be dancing in the streets naked, as this will be a FANTASTIC entry. If it does not, then the current strategy of gradual accumulation on corrections will continue. In terms of long term analysis, my previous idea still stands. If 3200 is not the permanent bottom, then a new low should occur sooner than later. This aggressive year long correction should soon be coming to and end… and I believe a multi month sideways accumulation/consolidation phase is soon to ensue.
Everything stated above is my opinion, and should not be taken as investment advice.
Published at Wed, 19 Dec 2018 09:08:35 +0000
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