Hey there, TradingView… long time, no chat! If you’re like me, you’ve been waiting the past two-plus months to find a clear sign that has either: (1) “officially” bottomed already, or (2) pushed itself to another point of capitulation, thus creating a new and (likely) final bottom. In the time since dropped from 6K to 3.1K, it has not closed above 4.2K or below 3.3K. So this waiting game is starting to get tiresome…
Luckily, we’re finally seeing some major developments, and I’ll illustrate how by pinging off a pair of ideas.
IDEA ONE: may come to test its bottom via the 200-week moving average (by tabsports)
Back in December, I published the idea that I will not buy long-term at the time, because (around $3178 on at the time of publishing). I then concluded my idea by claiming that will either: (1) fall below the 200W-MA, thus giving us one final bit of capitulation to establish the long-term bottom, or (2) bounce back from the 200W-MA, only to revisit this moving average to test the “official bottom” of the post-19K bear market. The former situation would’ve established the bottom within weeks, while the latter meant we would need months to see the bottom.
As you can conclude, the former has played out. I published the idea in question on December 15. By the time the next weekly candle closed, was up around the 4K range. It peaked at around 4.2K before Christmas, but the price eventually fell back to the 3.3K range at the Jan19-Feb19 turn of the month, when the 200W-MA was around at $3298.50 and $3315.57 on for the two weekly candles in that timeframe. ONCE AGAIN, bounced off the moving average, and it pushed back to the 4.2K peak before taking a regression-based tumble on Sunday.
Despite this development, I’m hesitant to call the bottom just yet. I was burned when calling the 6K bottom, despite about four or five times resisting the bears at that mark. Maybe it was too much natural bear pressure. Maybe it was the Cash drama. Either way, it destroyed an idea that held up for six months. I’m going to be more cautious after taking that L.
IDEA TWO: may have established its bottom by breaching the 50-day (by MagicPoopCannon)
Here’s where I give somebody else props, because his idea has given me some inspiration. While was calling a 3K bottom (or worse) back in April (or earlier), I was focused on short gains that were bouncing off a 6K bottom. That initial idea worked for me, taking from 6.8K on Coinbase at the time of publish to 9.9K about one month later. However, that was merely a short-term triumph.
Now, it’s clear that 3K bottom was reached. If you sold at the dump below 6K, you didn’t suffer much. But if you held, odds are you are still hoping for some major recovery. Luckily, recently pointed out that , and this is a sign. (Seriously, go give a read to his ideas related to this focus of analysis. He deserves credit for the insight.)
Using this idea as inspiration, I show here the comparison between the 50D-EMA (amber) and the 5-day volume-weight moving average. As you can see, the 50D-EMA is greater than the 5D-VWMA on Coinbase for the first time since the Aug18-Sep18 turn of the month. Indeed, this is a short-term sign. However, now we must consider that $400 drop on Sunday. At the time, the daily was overbought, and I personally stay away from buying. However, Sunday’s dump held up at the 50D-EMA and eve bounced back a bit in the past day. This is a potentially good sign that both the active price and 5D-VWMA will stay above the 50D-EMA for the upcoming days or weeks.
Keep an eye on how these two developments play out. Monitor the 200W-MA ( ), 50D-EMA (Coinbase) and 5D-VWMA (Coinbase). If the 5D-VWMA resists at 50D-EMA, it means the bulls have a chance to get this thing going. If it fails and goes back to the 200W-MA, it means we’re left to speculate the bottom once again. Worst yet, if it breaks below 200W-MA, it could mean once final bit of capitulation. (The good news in the latter case being that there’s a juicy buy and perhaps the much-desired solstice of the crypto winter. Seriously, enough waiting… I want some action!)
So, to conclude, know your poop about these developments! THIS IS NOT ADVICE TO BUY OR SELL, but rather a call for further research on how is establishing/testing both its long-term bottom and short-term bull status. Once we see these developments play out, we’ll know when and how to take some real action.
Until then, happy trading!
Published at Tue, 26 Feb 2019 02:21:40 +0000
