Currently is facing a 50/100 MA death cross on the weekly while inside of a big .
The last time this occurred was towards the end of the bear market in April of 2015. Upon the ACTUAL death cross of the 50/100 MA in 2015, only pierced the bottom of the support it was holding once before starting a multi-year bullrun.
The target of the weekly we are consolidating in upon successful breakdown will be roughly -29% from the point of breakout. This gives us a target of around $2,352 for our next solid support should we break below the 1.618 and our current lowest low. Here is the weekly chart for reference of the death cross as well as the we are consolidating in with targets.
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Daily view shows us multiple concerning factors corroborating the potential death cross.
First and foremost, a 4th consecutive rejection at the 50 MA- crucial resistance, and the top of the . This is now the 4th attempt for to rally back above the 50 MA, with the most current attempt being a very high rejection.
The is showing extreme weakness. Since December 17th, the has printed 2 higher highs while price has now printed a MUCH lower high. This is indicative of hidden divergence. This is what happened the last time divergence of this magnitude was shown in the RSI:
Since the 11th of January and after a massive rejection at overhead resistance with a cross, the has been attempting to get back above the zero line. Continued sell pressure will cause convergence and soon signal another cross.
The . and 2nd wave of this impulse is located around $3,470. It has proved to be a very strong support since we fell January 11th. If this area is pierced and there is a downside fakeout, I suspect it should go no further than the . located around $3,366. A confirmed break below this support with a subsequent failure to immediately rally back above will signal a short entry.
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Marked on the chart is also a structure count. If we are able to successfully break upwards and out of the , we have a chance at invalidating this massive hidden divergence by reaching a target of no less than $4,236. According to my current possible count, we also stand a very small chance of possibly printing an inverted . Though, not much hope should be put behind this happening. It is only there in the event my bull count somehow plays out LITERALLY perfectly.
(Which, let’s be honest…won’t happen in this market lol.)
Where do YOU think is headed?
Please feel free to share in the comment section below 🙂
PS- Having issues lately with my abilities to interact with my ideas.
If it takes me forever to reply to you(if I even can) or post an update, I apologize. I am working with customer support to hopefully have this resolved soon. Thank you for stopping by, and good luck! This should be fun to watch either way 😉
Published at Mon, 11 Feb 2019 22:17:20 +0000
