Historic Profiles + Chinese Big Three
In this analysis a price trend or technique is used to show the prices of greatest historic for .
The built-in (VPVR) indicator can be used to build a more detailed profile, however the exchange data used in this analysis is not available on TradingView.
The red and grey profiles (horizontal bands) above correspond to the high regions that are described below.
These profiles can be thought of as significant zones.
- Current price is far higher than even recent and smaller support (e.g. ~$1300-1900)
- Upward movement will face significant resistance based on 2017-2018 distribution (e.g. ≳$5500)
- Strongest support formed September 2016 through January 2017 (e.g. ~$600-1200, strongest ~$700-1000)
Also charted are yearly for 2018 and 2019 (violet), high trading days for 2018 (green), and high leverage from 2017 (yellow).
The shown is in , and in total 3096 daily volumes were analyzed (2010/07/17—2019/01/18)
Due to lack of normality in data, percentiles were used to determine high regions
The ticker plotted is (Brave New Coin Liquid Index) which consists of the following constituents:
Bitfinex, , BTC-e, BTCC, Coinsetter, GDax, Gemini, itBit, Kraken, Mt.Gox, OKCoin ( pair BTCC, EUR pair Kraken, USD pair others)
The red profiles were created using data from the following exchanges, for all currencies.
ANXBTC, Bit2C, BitBay, BitBay, Indonesia, bitcoin [BTC]de, Norway, Bitcurex, Bitfinex, bitFlyer, BitMarket, , Bit-x, Markets, BTCC*, BTC-e, CampBX, CampBX, CAVIRTEX, . , CleverCoin, Coinfloor, Coinsetter, EXMO, Gatecoin, GDax, Gemini, HitBTC, Huobi*, itBit, Justcoin, Korbit, Kraken, lakeBTC, Mercado , Mt.Gox, OKCoin*, Paymium, Rmbtb, TheRockTrading, Vaultoro
*Chinese Big Three
The grey profiles were created from all the exchanges above, minus the Chinese Big Three exchanges.
No derivatives or OTC included in profiles (e.g. BitMEX, Bitkan, LocalBitcoins, BitQuick, Wall of Coins)
(An area locating high period for LocalBitcoins is shown)
The Chinese Big Three exchanges (BTCC, Huobi, OKCoin) represented more than 90% of all trading before People’s Bank of China (PBoC) intervention.
This ‘China FUD’ period began in January 2017, when PBoC along with local financial authorities investigated the Big Three exchanges.
No regulations were instituted, but by end of January 2017 the Big Three discontinued margin trading and zero-fee trading.
**From January 2014 through January 2017, the Big Three represented 92% of all trading volume**
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Two ‘islands’ of can be identified through this analysis (red profiles).
The first island formed in late November of 2015, and extended until late March of 2016.
This first island ranged from a low of $316.77 to a high of $475.62, with a bulk of occurring ~$400-440.
The second island formed in mid September of 2016, and extended until mid January of 2017.
This second island ranged from a low of $584.94 to a high of $1180.02, with a bulk of occurring in two ranges: ~$650-700 and ~$800-1000.
Throughout these island periods over 80% of was from the Big Three exchanges, at times 98% of was traded on the Big Three.
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Removing the Big Three trading from analysis results in a slightly different distribution (grey profiles).
The high islands are found in November 2015 through February 2016, June 2016, May 2017, and a final island extending from November 2017 through March 2018.
High (90th percentile) trading months are as follows:
April 2013, November 2015, December 2015, February 2016, June 2016, May 2017, November 2017-March 2018
None of the peak trading months are found in the Willy Bot era, in which a Mt.Gox bot allegedly initiated trades to produce ‘fake’ trading from late July 2013 through November 2013
Furthermore, LocalBitcoins was highest from February 2015 through May 2016, with significant extending into April 2017 before falling off.
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Underlying Shelf
2015/10/12–2017/01/23
1,296,895,211 Mean 2,759,352
O 248.47 H 1180.02 L 248.47 C 916.04
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Island 1
2015/11/25–2016/03/31
390,799,862 Mean 3,053,124
O 320.93 H 475.62 L 316.77 C 415.82
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Mesa
2015/02/29-2015/03/31
153,603,151 Mean 4,800,098
O 436.38 H 446.38 L 393.04 C 415.82
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Island 2
2016/09/18–2017/01/18
591,574,697 Mean 4,809,550
O 606.26 H 1180.02 L 584.94 C 887.30
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Mountains
Volume 318,794,889.92
2016/10/26–2016/11/04
83,415,906 Mean 8,341,591
O 662.99 H 759.26 L 662.99 C 702.57
2016/11/12–2016/11/17
51,439,151 Mean 8,573,192
O 723.21 H 787.79 L 687.04 C 763.40
2016/11/30–2016/12/01
15,604,301 Mean 7,802,150
O 735.11 H 758.72 L 733.72 C 757.18
2016/12/09–2016/12/12
33,878,552 Mean 8,469,638
O 768.56 H 784.04 L 768.31 C 781.34
2016/12/21–2016/12/28
64,501,533 Mean 8,062,692
O 803.86 H 982.06 L 802.23 C 981.83
2017/01/04–2017/01/07
47,431,664 Mean 11,857,916
O 1040.19 H 1180.02 L 817.74 C 907.76
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Summits
2016/11/03
13,817,953
O 751.64 H 759.23 L 670.35 C 689.15
2016/11/15—2016/11/16
23,227,183 Mean 11,613,592
O 713.01 H 774.77 L 711.52 C 772.16
2016/12/21—2016/12/22
22,529,218 Mean 11,264,609
O 803.86 H 878.05 L 802.23 C 864.2
2017/01/04-2017/01/05
28,043,003 Mean 14,021,501
O 1040.19 H 1180.02 L 899.59 C 1011.04
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Last 90th percentile day: 2017/01/18
2017 80th percentile days: 01/01-01/23, 09/14-09/15, 11/12, 11/29, 12/07, 12/22
2018 80th percentile days: 01/17, 02/02, 02/05-02/06, 11/20
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Total by year
2010: 2,666,238
2011: 6,261,172
2012: 24,164,883
2013: 43,625,281
2014: 82,258,083
2015: 253,108,985
2016: 1,044,253,415
2017: 163,266,263
2018: 44,667,716
Highest months
March 2016: 148,693,421
October 2016: 115,658,782
November 2016: 175,517,926
December 2016: 170,989,251
January 2017: 107,943,195
90th percentile days by year
Pre-2015: 1
2015: 49
2016: 245
2017: 16
2018: 0
Median/Mean daily by year
2015: 389,877/693,449
2016: 2,168,318/2,853,151
2017: 149,708/447,305
2018: 100,779/122,377
Published at Thu, 24 Jan 2019 02:43:43 +0000
