I believe that the cycle low is in. Its a bit short at 45 days but since the move down was so aggressive, its not uncommon to have a short cycle. I’ve been taking some small trades the past few days and I had sold a long at $3700 but I thought there was a good chance we would make another move lower yesterday. Since the rally held up and we’ve closed an hourly over $4150, I think the low could be in so I’m in for good.
Yes, we can pause here then end up with a big move down to new lows. I’ll stop out 50% if we make new lows and then look to buy back lower. Way too late in the cycle to be shorting.
My goal is to carry this long for 15-30 days but this depends on price action. I think we’ll see a move to $5500 then it will stall and come back down and either make new lows in February or retest the lows. There’s always a chance we just rally strong and this ends up being a major low. Right now I don’t think that is the case as I think the weekly cycle needs another daily cycle to finish, but cycle counts can be wrong.
I have bought back part of the position that I sold near the top. This is my first long term long position since early 2017.
I announced that I was starting to move to long term holdings to cash in this post — on Nov 29, 2017
The price was around $10k and it took me 2 months before I was fully cash on my long term investment. I always buy and sell long term position multiple times over months to get an average price. The highest I sold was $17k. Just the same, it will take me months to buy back my position.
I sold my last tranche at $13k on 1-20-2018 and that was the first time I shorted ever
You can see my target was $7500. We hit $6000 just 4 weeks later.
This is also a good one. Worth reading if you want to understand how markets work —
You can read my history as I generally played every bounce fairly well (but not all of them). My best year trading ever.
The reason I post this is because when I say I’m going long, its meaningful and not just some random dude on TV.
But still, if you are trading, use a damn stop and have a plan if we go lower.
Published at Sat, 01 Dec 2018 18:04:09 +0000
