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Fundstrat’s Tom Lee: Bitcoin Misery Index Indicators Show the Crypto ‘Isn't Broken’

Fundstrat’s tom lee: bitcoin misery index indicators show the crypto ‘isn't broken’

Fundstrat’s Tom Lee: Bitcoin Misery Index Indicators Show the Crypto ‘Isn't Broken’

Fundstrat’s tom lee: bitcoin misery index indicators show the crypto ‘isn't broken’

Bitcoin (BTC) “isn’t broken” if it’s holding at the current price and volatility levels, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee said to CNBC’s “Fast Money” on August 6.

In the interview, the Wall Street bull referred to the current indicators of Fundstrat’s recently launched bitcoin Misery Index (BMI), which aims to inform investors of how “miserable” holders of the currency are based on its price and volatility.

According to Lee, when the index is below 27, it shows that future returns are very good, while if it surpasses 68 percent, it is “time to sell bitcoin.” Pointing at the index’s current number of 39, Lee concluded that the momentum is “recovering,” noting

bitcoin isn’t broken if it’s holding at these levels. I think people are afraid it is going to go back down to $6,000 and never come back from those bear markets.”

Fundstrat’s head of research also pointed out the current levels of bitcoin dominance on the crypto markets, which has surged up to around 48 percent over the past several weeks after dropping to as low as 37 percent in July.  

As Lee explained, the fact that major cryptocurrency keeps gaining momentum in terms of market share is “actually showing the market is reacting to what’s been taking place.”

Lee also pointed at the recent biggest news in the industry, such as the Intercontinental Exchange’s (ICE) announcement of developing a new global digital assets platform, as well as the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) stating that bitcoin is not a security.

On Aug. 3, ICE, the operator of 23 leading global exchanges including the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), announced its plans to build an integrated digital assets platform to enable customers, merchants, and institutional clients to buy, sell, store, and spend digital assets on a “seamless global network.”

In the beginning of July, Lee repeated his stance that bitcoin could reach anywhere between $22,000 to $25,000 by the end of 2018. Earlier this summer, on June 27, Lee had predicted that the BTC downtrend that took place in June would be reversed if bitcoin could push through a resistance point of $6,300 to $6,400.

Published at Tue, 07 Aug 2018 13:17:00 +0000

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Ether Price Analysis: Potential Reaccumulation Phase Could Push Stronger Highs

Ether Price Analysis

Since its rapid ascent from $8 to the $400s, ether has seen a fair amount of volatility. Over the last few weeks, there has been a surge in volume as it pushed out of its multi-month trading range:

Figure_1 (3).JPGFigure 1: ETH-USD, 12-Hour Candles, Macro Trend

The several months ether spent consolidating appears to have formed a macro Reaccumulation Phase that led to a breakout of the trading range on strong volume; ultimately yielding our current market position in the $450s.

A Reaccumulation Phase is a pause after a strong uptrend that attempts to shake out weak shareholders as the market consolidates toward the stronger holders of a given commodity. A Reaccumulation Phase is intended to torture the weak holders of a commodity into ultimately relinquishing their market share to the stronger market players, before a strong, upward continuation of the previous trend kicks back in.

Some of the characteristics of a Reaccumulation Phase include strong buyback on the dips with high volume and wide candle spread:

Figure_2 (3).JPGFigure 2: ETH-USD, 12 HR Candles, Volume and Price Movement

When analyzing trading ranges, it is paramount to contextualize the price movement and the volume. Doing so reveals the intent of the larger market players and will help give traders insight into the potential strength (or weakness) of their investments. Throughout the length of the trading range, it is common to see several tests of both the upper and lower boundaries (the blue horizontal lines).

One key trait we are looking for when identifying a Reaccumulation Phase is the increase in volume as the stock (or coin in our case) begins to rally toward the latter end of the trading range:

Figure_3 (2).JPGFigure 3: ETH-USD, 12 Hour Candles, Trading Range Breakout

Although the current market trend is somewhat consolidating in these higher price levels, it is a very bullish sign that we have broken out of the trading range and done so on increasing volume. This trend shows that the market is now dominated by demand and all the free-floating supply has been absorbed. As the market begins to test new highs, wait for volume to increase to confirm strength in the upward direction.

Summary:

  1. ETH-USD broke out of a potential, multi-month reaccumulation phase.

  2. Increasing volume on the move out of the trading range gives us confidence in a bullish continuation.

Trading and investing in digital assets like bitcoin and ether is highly speculative and comes with many risks. This analysis is for informational purposes and should not be considered investment advice. Statements and financial information on bitcoin Magazine and BTC Media related sites do not necessarily reflect the opinion of BTC Media and should not be construed as an endorsement or recommendation to buy, sell or hold. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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