Crypto predictions from January, crypto VR application, more crypto fraud, discussion on China’s relationship with crypto, and Bitfinex raising withdrawal fees. Catch up on today’s news!
Eerily Accurate Crypto Predictions From January 2018
December 2017 and January 2018 can be labeled as overwhelmingly exuberant in terms of market sentiment and price gain. Thinking clearly is difficult during these times. But one crypto OG saw through the hype, making excellent predictions for the year.
Ryan Selkis, aka TwoBitIdiot, wrote a report called the 95 Crypto Theses for 2018. Perhaps the most accurate prediction among many relevant topics, was his call for a “coming 99% off sale”.
Many altcoins have seen 80-90%+ drops in price this year. Making this call during exuberant times was admirable.
Decentralizing A Billion-Dollar Virtual Industry
bitcoin creator envisioned bitcoin changing the landscape of the virtual gaming world (among other use cases of course). However, the Ethereum network has taken the reigns in making this a reality lately.
Decentraland is “an open-world VR platform that will allow users to create their own reality”, reports Crypto Insider. The game includes virtual real estate speculation and property purchasing.
The game uses MANA, an based token, for purchasing this virtual land. Decentraland also partnered with peer-to-peer crypto lending network Ripio.
CFTC Fines bitcoin Trader $1.1 Million For Crypto Fraud
Another crypto fraud case hits the media as the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) catches a scammy crypto trader.
According to the CFTC on Friday, Joseph Kim of Arizona is required “to pay more than $1.1 million for a fraudulent bitcoin and Litecoin scheme”. He was also given 15 months prison time.
Kim organized a bitcoin and Litecoin scam “that led to more than $1 million in losses, of which Kim misappropriated more than $600,000”, stated the CFTC press release.
CoinDesk explains the trader siphoned bitcoin and Litecoin from a trading firm at which he worked back in the fall of last year.
Kim also criminally received significant customer funds late last year as well as earlier this year.
Skirting The Great Wall, Part Three: The Paradox Of Cryptocurrencies In China
Over the past several years, China has made itself known for crypto bans and regulation. So far this month, China has expanded its anti-ICO stance, grouping airdrops into the banned category.
CoinTelegraph details a report questioning crypto’s current use in China, amidst such regulation.
Bitfinex: New Fee Policy Suggests $30,000 Fee To Withdraw $1 Million
is one of the most popular exchange names in the crypto space, despite rumors of suspicious activity. The exchange saw over $1 billion worth of fiat withdrawals over the course of last month, according to a report by Bitcoinist.
Bitfinex made an announcement yesterday with its plans for a new fee set up. “Customers making more than $1 million, or two fiat withdrawals within any 30-day period, will incur a three percent fee”, reported Bitcoinist.
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In recent times, governments around the world have charted a new course for cryptocurrency , and it’s one that seeks to exclude . Moving away from the complete banning of digital currencies, these governments are tackling two core issues: protecting investors and traders, and making sure that cryptocurrencies avoid becoming breeding grounds for criminals.
This trend has sparked many regulatory requirements, from anti-money laundering rules to KYCs. But as these governments intensify their regulations, we must ask ourselves what is the future of privacy-focused cryptocurrencies geared toward maintaining user privacy to the core?
Anonymous Coins: Living Up to Their Names
In its developmental stages, bitcoin had earned a name as a cryptocurrency that provides complete anonymity to its users, drawing many privacy lovers to it. Today, that notion has changed completely. Though it might not be possible to trace transactions made on the bitcoin blockchain to a specific identity, other details, including location and amount of transactions, are visible. And the fact that linking your identity to the blockchain will expose your transactions to the public ledger shows that, after all, the . In turn, privacy-focused coins have come to save the day.
Beginning its journey in 2014 as , Dash is one of the most popular privacy-focused coins in the cryptosphere. Its privacy feature PrivateSend, previously called Darksend relies on the CoinJoin mechanism of boxing-up transactions and making them difficult to identify participants of a particular transaction
Another popular coin is . Developed through the CryptoNight Proof of Work protocol, Monero has risen to be one of the in existence today. Transaction sources and destinations are untraceable in Monero. For example, to escape scrutiny from authorities, the WannaCry ransomware hackers reportedly converted their hoard to Monero. Additionally, after the closure of the darknet marketplace AlphaBay, authorities reported that they could not identify the amount of Monero on the platform, cementing the coin as a good place not just for privacy-oriented individuals, but as a hiding place for some criminals.
Other privacy coins have sprung up and gained popularity as well, including , PIVX, Navcoin, Verge, among others. For proponents of the privacy coin, cryptocurrencies should be able to help privacy-oriented people conduct their financial transactions without prying eyes. Providing that infrastructure shouldn’t be a headache. But unfortunately for many, governments do not think so.
Government Crackdown on Privacy Coins
Though there has not been a comprehensive regulatory oversight on cryptocurrencies in general, many governments are devising ways of preventing criminals from using these digital currencies as their go-to financial system. These governments are also making sure that traders and investors in this space pay tax.
But for privacy coins, the story is not that favorable even though many authorities haven’t turned their attention to the anon coin sector. In a written testimony in June this year, Deputy Assistant Director of Office of Investigations at the US Secret Service Robert Novy recommended that privacy-focused cryptocurrencies like Monero and Zcash should be regulated to prevent fraud. In May, put pressure on anonymous cryptocurrencies, gingering crypto exchanges like Coincheck, a Japanese-based cryptocurrency exchange to announce its delisting of privacy coins, including the likes of Augur, Monero, Dash, and ZCash. The reason? Coins that grant a high level of anonymity might be used for according to the FSA.
But can Privacy-Focused Coins be Stopped by Governments?
Government regulation would surely hamper the growth of privacy coins, but not completely. One specific area that would be hard hit is the ability to exchange these coins for fiat or other cryptocurrencies. However, as the cryptocurrency space grows, privacy would be an integral part of this sector, and privacy coins might potentially rule that space.
As Fernando Gutierrez puts it,
There are many legitimate reasons to want privacy in the cryptocurrency space and there is the obvious consideration about privacy being a human right but then there is the huge issue of security. Having financial information public or semi-public is extremely dangerous. The only way to provide security for the average user is to allow them to keep some information private.
When cryptocurrencies find their way into the mainstream and become a true internet money as many predict, privacy coins would be the order of the day for people who don’t want to have a public ledger of their everyday transactions. When the time comes, governments might have to comply themselves and find ways to get their income taxes or prevent people from using them for money laundering, terrorist financing, and other fraudulent activities.
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December 2017 – January 2018. Arguably the most amazingly exuberant time in – as far a price gains go. At the height of all the action, the air was filled with talks of an ““, with possibly no end in sight for such price exuberance. But some predictions from the time are eerily spot on.
However, one crypto influencer was far too experienced to believe this type of market would last very long. Ryan Selkis, Aka TwoBitIdiot on Twitter and Medium, published his “” on January 2nd of this year – and it includes some surprisingly accurate predictions. Here’s a few interesting points.
Several Notable Predictions
Prediction #2 – “I call it the cryptoasset barbell: cryptocurrencies (sky’s the limit), utility tokens (heading to zero), and “smart securities” (coming soon)”.
This appears to be pretty accurate. seem to be where the crypto market is heading, with seeing an 80 percent failure rate for ICOs.
The above ties in with #7, which in part states – “Crypto-securities aren’t really a thing yet, but they will be massive, and they will actually have measurable fundamental value”.
CEO : "We do feel a substantial subset of these tokens will be securities…we want to be the legal compliant place where you can start to trade these tokens that are classified as securities.”
— Security Token (@security_token)
At this stage, it’s a logical question to wonder the actual value of utility tokens, in that they don’t necessarily gain value based on the performance of the underlying company in the same way stocks do.
Tying in with prediction #5, – “Most utility tokens, then, will go to zero, regardless of team quality and execution. You simply don’t need to hold them but for momentum & greater fool investing. When the market lacks “higher order” investors for speculators to flip to, assets will unwind. Viciously.”
Utility tokens are merely incentives. Badges, streaks and points are the same thing. Neither is big on a global scale
— Pomp 
#20 was perhaps one of the most interesting predictions, detailing the major currently seen.
Selkis writes – “There is no rhyme or reason to prices in crypto, and there will not be in 2018. Best to embrace that this will be a sentiment-driven market until the crash. Stay safe and embrace the opportunity to sit on the sidelines and do research! There will be gems to swoop up in the coming 99% off sale”.
Many crypto assets are still trading at such a discount, as chronicled in Coingape’s article, published in mid-September.
The respectable part of these price predictions is that they was made during two of the most euphoric months in crypto, when it was hard to see past all the positivity.
Predictions Still TBD
#10 –“BCH is tough to root for, but you have to be long as a hedge. If BCH loses badly, I doubt we’ll ever see on-chain BTC scaling, and Core’s stranglehold on the dev roadmap will be cemented. But if BCH wins, it could take down the whole asset class. Rock. Hard place.”
It will be interesting to see how the upcoming bitcoin Cash fork on November 15 plays into this statement.
#18 – “Stablecoins will work until they don’t. Sure, the Basecoin and MakerDAO teams seem strong, but these things will always break under (not so) black swan market conditions. And like the fiat currencies they aim to replace, once they break, they’ll be broken for good.”
Seeing as the new fad, the market may be in the middle of figuring itself out in this regard. TBD still on this one. Although Tether was pretty broken when it went down to per USDT in October.
#58 also mentions crypto tax difficulties. “We need better crypto tax solutions. It’s mind-blowingly complex to do all this reporting”. Hopefully the IRS works on this one soon because crypto and taxes are brutal to record for honest tax paying citizens.
*Crypto Insider is sponsored in part by . as part of our arrangement with them, Crypto Insider may occasionally link to, and quote, Blockmodo when appropriate. this is done at the discretion of our staff. Crypto Insider sponsors have no say in any of our editorial decisions.
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On the bitcoin network, whether it is a transaction worth $100 or $1 million, it costs the same miner’s fee to process the payment. On October 16, a $194 million payment was moved on the bitcoin network with a mere $0.1 fee nearly instantaneously. Through legacy banking systems, weeks of paperwork, days of settlement system, …
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