March 14th, 2019
**ALL PRICES FROM BITFINEX
has been sideways for almost a month now. Since the major rejection of a breakout on February 24th, we have created a belly in price movement. The range has consisted of to a low of $3761 to a high of $4046 in this range. Major movements generally drop a lot more violently which is why I am erring on the side of longing rather than shorting this. My two reasons are as follows:
1. Possible Wyckoff Re-accumulation Phase rather than a Distribution Phase.
a. Volume profile and momentum oscillators agree with this.
2. ’s volatility index (according to BitMex) has dropped 80% since February 24th.
What this is telling me is that a big move is incoming but to try to trade in this range is almost guessing. That being said, the reason why longing makes more sense is because there was no distribution phase. Instead of a price consolidation at the top when we reached $4282, the price dropped 10% in the matter of hours. Generally, there is a chance for liquidity pools to be created. Some characteristics would be long wicks that indicate signs of uncertainty from bulls and bears leading to a correction. Longs and Shorts are pretty much neck and neck at 22k longs and 20k shorts so I don’t expect to see any long or short squeezes. We might continue to range so I am going to stay out of until we see some more volatility.
ETH’s price action is very similar to ’s but with a few slight differences. First off, there was the similar pump that led ETH to move to $170 and then a precipitous drop to the $140s range two weeks ago. Then there was a similar belly that was formed which looks like a Wyckoff Re-accumulation as well. However, one of the main differences is that this price action looks a lot better than ’s in terms of going in a long position. I will refer to my yellow line and my purple line as EMA1 and EMA2 with the yellow being a shorter time frame and the purple one longer, respectively. EMA1 is finding some nice support and we are consolidating within a micro range, that hasn’t fully completed a macro range. But if we hold this range here, we have a good shot of at least re-testing $150-$170. I am still long from around $131 after taking some profit but that being said, my stop loss is $131. There is a strong possibility that this price can still be going to the $113-$118 range, but if that breaks, the sentiment will be bearish to me.
XRP is quite different than any of the other . The sentiment for XRP is bearish in my opinion. Because XRP has showcased that has decouple a while ago, relying on price movements from and will not provide as much meaning as say, the relationship between and . That being said, there are some critical tests that XRP has not satisfied for me to be considered bullish. First off, there was a major rejection at the 38.2 Fibonacci line and the pattern right now seems like a bearish continuation. Until we can break $.40, I am not considering to trade XRP. It is entirely possible that we have bottomed out, but I am more confident in the above coins for now. There was an 8% drop at 7:15am this morning but it wicked extremely long so that we are currently in a range. This is an indication of uncertainty between bears and bulls.
I actually like ’s price action, but not in terms of a long. There was a great short at $60. Bearish divergence had already formed and this was at a retest of a break out in an ascending channel. Long-term LTC is bullish to me because of this expanding channel vs one that constricts so I do see a lot of opportunity to trade this. At time of writing the current price is about $57 but the price did eventually drop to about $55 so that would have been a 10% profit. There is still a possibility that LTC can drop to $46. At that point that would be a solid long position.
is in tight predicament. EMA1 and EMA2 are about to converge or diverge. If they continue to diverge then ’s price action will be bullish but it is too hard to tell right now. This does look like a re-accumulation phase as well. As the price converges into the apex of its triangle, there should be an increase in volatility very soon. There is heavy resistance at $4.00 but decent support at $3.45. The sentiment is more bullish than bearish for me though. However, I am going to wait until we make a new high or low before I consider .
Published at Fri, 15 Mar 2019 00:13:13 +0000
