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bitcoin approaches a new all-time high (ATH) in price and market cap as we re-enter a mode of price discovery. All of this occurs in the settling of an unresolved block size and scalability debate set to be disrupted with the UASF on August 1. Cryptocurrencies, as a whole, now hold over $100 billion in market cap for the first time. While bitcoin (BTC) leads the pack at just over $46.6 billion, or 47.9 percent of all cryptocurrencies, the recent surge in these other coins has helped to push the total cap over the top.
Since the Bitfinex hack low on August 2, bitcoin has traded better than JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Tesla, Apple, Google and gold. One of the few stocks to match the frenetic pace of bitcoin has been Nvidia, which is up over 200 percent since July of last year.
bitcoin is also trading much better than all the major payment processors including Visa, American Express, Mastercard, Capital One, Discover and PayPal.
The strong upward trend of global OTC volume suggests this is not an isolated incident, limited to Asian countries alone, but indicates organic growth of price worldwide. The deflationary aspects of bitcoin are having an unquestionable role in shaping the supply/demand curve.
Although China, Japan and South Korea are trading at a ~$100-plus premium compared to the exchanges in the United States, most of the volume in the past 24 hours has been driven by USD.
There is no certainty of a top until bullish momentum and buying are exhausted, but you can use Fibonacci extensions, previous fractals and pivots to find resistance targets.
Price broke the critical resistance level of 50 percent of the pullback on June 1 and has not looked back. Each Fib has shown both support and resistance on the way up, so with a reasonable degree of probability, the Fib extensions should be seen as resistance targets as well. This would bring price in the zone of $2,950–3,300 on the index.
Looking at the bigger picture, the Fib extension of the previous down fractal yielded a price almost three times the low. Using those same Fibs, this would bring the price to around $6,500 when this next run-up is all said and done.
There is also a growing bearish divergence with higher highs in price and lower highs on RSI (white diagonal line). The bear divergence can be negated with new high on RSI. Last, monthly pivots also yield a resistance maximum (R5) at around $5,800.
Summary
A new ATH is extremely likely, with continued demand for bitcoin and cryptocurrencies worldwide.
Despite the heavy premiums in Asia, USD trading volume leads the rally.
Based on technicals, targets above $3,000 are extremely likely in the near future.
Trading and investing in digital assets like bitcoin is highly speculative and comes with many risks. This analysis is for informational purposes and should not be considered investment advice. Statements and financial information on bitcoin Magazine and BTCMedia related sites do not necessarily reflect the opinion of BTCMedia and should not be construed as an endorsement or recommendation to buy, sell or hold. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
