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China’s Bitcoin Mining Ban is a Short-Term Blow, But Easily Recoverable

China’s bitcoin mining ban is a short-term blow, but easily recoverable

China’s Bitcoin Mining Ban is a Short-Term Blow, But Easily Recoverable

China’s bitcoin mining ban is a short-term blow, but easily recoverable

According to Reuters, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) of China has drafted a proposal that may ban bitcoin mining.

The NDRC is responsible for economic planning, which includes the administration of a list of industries for restriction or elimination. Consequently, details of the latest list propose the removal of cryptocurrency mining. The reasons cited include failure to obey regulations, mining is unsafe, and the environmental impact it has.

China’s Anti-Crypto Stance

In another hostile move by the Chinese authorities, the proposal to ban cryptocurrency mining will spread more fear, uncertainty, and doubt. But the Chinese government has long been cautious over cryptocurrencies for reasons we can only speculate. Back in September 2017, the Chinese authorities implemented a raft of stringent regulations that severely restricted cryptocurrency activities. This included a ban on Initial Coin Offerings and fiat to bitcoin exchanges.

Many Chinese investors sought to overcome these restrictions by using peer-to-peer networks and VPN services to trade on overseas exchanges. However, the month that followed saw a further crackdown on “exchange-like services,” as well as the inclusion of foreign cryptocurrency exchanges and ICO websites to the Great Firewall. What remained was discussion of cryptocurrencies via media outlets. However, even this was subsequently outlawed.

Speculation

Lance Morginn, CEO of Blockchain Intelligence Group, had previously worked with China’s Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economic Co-operation (MOFTEC). His role involved the development of a secure network to spread information. Speaking to Forbes about the crypto restrictions, he said:

“These moves and maybe more to come would let Beijing’s monetary authority, the People’s Bank of China, give investors more security and add safeguards against speculative investment products.”

Nonetheless, Young brings attention to the possibility that China’s anti-crypto stance is rooted in monetary control, rather than consumer protection. He goes on to speak about government efforts to stop capital outflows by saying:

Analysts suggested that the ban was imposed as a part of a larger initiative to enable stricter capital controls, to stop local investors from utilizing cryptocurrencies as an instrument to move funds outside of China to overseas markets.”

The Consequence of a China Mining Ban

The world’s largest bitcoin mining pools operate within China. Those being BTC.com, Antpool, F2Pool, and Poolin. Together, they account for around half of the total bitcoin hash rate. If China implemented a mining ban, the sudden loss of hashing power would severely disrupt the bitcoin network. This would have a short-term adverse effect on price. Nonetheless, it’s likely that mining operations would move and set up shop elsewhere.

Circumventing the Rules

In China, demand for bitcoin, and other cryptocurrencies remains buoyant. The restrictions imposed by the Chinese government have only served to develop workarounds to acquire cryptocurrencies. At present, the most convenient way to onboard is to buy USDT through an over-the-counter trading desk. And then trade on a foreign exchange using a VPN. But this practice has led to exploitation of Chinese investors, who are willing to pay a premium for Yuan to USDT conversions.

A mining ban in China would be a short-term blow for the industry, yet one that is easily recoverable. After all, as demonstrated by people’s willingness to bypass restrictions, the restrictions on crypto have only driven investment money overseas.

Published at Tue, 09 Apr 2019 15:00:53 +0000

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Ether Price Analysis: Eve and Adam Could Be Turning Back the Bulls

Ether Price Analysis

Since bottoming out around $200, ether has spent several weeks bouncing back and forth inside an ascending channel:

Figure_1 (15).JPGFigure 1: ETH-USD, 4-Hour Candles, Ascending Channel

For the last month and a half, ether’s trend has been contained within the bounds of this ascending channel, where it has continued its bullish rally. However, today (as of the time of this article) it is starting to make moves to aggressively test the lower boundary. Specifically, as ether tests this channel, it is forming a potential reversal pattern called an Eve-and-Adam Double Top.

Figure_2 (12).JPGFigure 2: ETH-USD, 1-Hour Candles, Eve-and-Adam Double Top

At the time of this article, ether is attempting to break the neckline (the pink dashed line) of the massive reversal pattern. Should ether break this neckline, the measured move from this pattern is a $30 move downward, which would ultimately shove ether outside the bullish ascending channel it has been trending within. The price target of the Double Top breakout would bring the ETH-USD price into the upper $200s.

On a macro scale, ether has support along the following Fibonacci levels:

Figure_3 (12).JPGFigure 3: ETH-USD, 4-Hour Candles, Fibonacci Levels

Should the ascending channel break, the above Fibonacci levels will provide support and will need to be tested in order to prove a bearish continuation. As of the time of this article, the Double Top mentioned in Figure 2 is sitting right on the 23 percent retracement values where it is making attempts at breaking it. There is strong support at these values, so if ether can break and hold below $315, it will send a strong bearish signal to the market.

Should the Double Top complete, we can expect a test of the 38 percent retracement values following the break of the ascending channel. At this time, the 4-hour MACD is showing strong bearish momentum on a macro scale, and the market is picking up sell volume.

Summary:

  1. For weeks, ether has been trending within an ascending channel.

  2. Ether is currently in the process of making a strong test of the ascending channel via an Eve-and-Adam Double Top reversal pattern.

  3. If the Double Top breaks downward, we can expect a break of the multi-week bullish channel and a test of the 38 percent Fibonacci Retracement values.

Trading and investing in digital assets like bitcoin, bitcoin cash and ether is highly speculative and comes with many risks. This analysis is for informational purposes and should not be considered investment advice. Statements and financial information on bitcoin Magazine and BTC Media related sites do not necessarily reflect the opinion of BTC Media and should not be construed as an endorsement or recommendation to buy, sell or hold. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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