FundStrat’s Tom Lee revised his 2018 end-of-year forecast from $25,000 to $15,000. is now $5,646, and Lee waited for a 59 percent decline (YTD) to make that revision. Tom, and he’s seem to have replaced James Altucher.
Before the $25,000 2018 target was implemented, Lee was on a little more than a year ago. His primary thesis was Metcalfe’s Law as was undergoing its mania phase. This law, originally used in telecommunications, states that a network is proportional to the square number of its users. That didn’t pan out so well because as prices throughout the crypto-currency space cratered, it was revealed that transactions using equally cratered.
So, if we were to apply Metcalfe’s Law that would seem reasonable. Interest just caved. .
But wait… you get lots of airtime on CNBC if you like . Tom needed something new to promote higher prices: a magical multiple.
Tom now uses a 2.5x multiple on mining costs. There is no magical multiple.
Does have utility? Some. To what degree is still up in the air. As I said last November, I still stand by it. has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of easy money policies. It still has a strong positive correlation with the at .61.
I’m not picking on Tom to be a prick, we’ve all been wrong. But take accountability and own up to it. After all, Tom said Citi had the same brand value as Coke in 2007.
Price has broken a critical level with another $700 to go before the probability to fall between $2-3000.
Published at Sun, 18 Nov 2018 01:56:35 +0000
