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BTCUSD – 3000% Cyclical Long Trade? 4 Year Plan

Btcusd - 3000% cyclical long trade? 4 year plan

BTCUSD – 3000% Cyclical Long Trade? 4 Year Plan

Btcusd - 3000% cyclical long trade? 4 year plan

I am very bullish long-term toward crypto assets for various fundamental and technical reasons, particularly when it comes to bitcoin ($BTC) which is the most “institutionalized” crypto asset with its deeper trading history and, now, wide global recognition. As of this week, I see a very interesting opportunity from a technical perspective to try to get positioned long in BTC over the next 12-18 months. There will also eventually be opportunities to participate in the purchase of other crypto assets once enough of the bad crypto fruit is flushed out through consolidation, regulations become more clear, and new participants walk through the door (this is already happening now).

What is my trading method?

One of the first principles is to never trade against the trend! I have simplified the method here:

Part 1

Part 2

What do I see?

The breaking of 6K unleashed a big sell signal on the bigger timeframes. Since then the selling has been strong, with the market quickly coming to its knees (I expected to see such price action extended over a longer period of time). This is now a “buy blood” opportunity.

What’s the trend?

On the weekly the trend is to the upside. Why? The EMA50 is trading well above the EMA200 on the weekly chart (take a look). Aside from this we have a potential falling wedge pattern (a classic reversal pattern). Careful trend analysis reveals that we now are beginning to see bargain prices and should anticipate the formation of a floor over the next 12-18 months.

How to proceed forward?

A bottoming of the price will require a consolidation time of approximately 1 year if we can form a long reversal wick within a month or two. This means 2019 will most likely be a sideways show. During this time, price action is likely to test lows multiple times which will provide multiple buying opportunities for an approximate 4 year trade.

***This is not investment advice and is simply an educational analysis of the market and/or pair. By reading this post you acknowledge that you will use the information here at YOUR OWN RISK

Published at Fri, 07 Dec 2018 14:44:02 +0000

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Dear Dr. Doom,

You might be interested in …

Legendary Investor Howard Marks Admits ‘I Don’t Understand What’s Behind Bitcoin’

After calling bitcoin a ‘fad’ and a ‘pyramid scheme’ the man who called the dot com bubble has admitted that he does not understand what is driving the value of bitcoin, which keeps rising seemingly unhindered.

While many, including traditional investors, come around to bitcoin and get on board with the digital currency that keeps breaking records in terms of its value, some are still stubbornly skeptical, and a little confused.

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Where is the Value?

Howard Marks, the billionaire investor who made his name on Wall Street from calling some major investment bubbles, including the Dotcom bubble, said on CNBC’s Fast Money Halftime Report that he can’t figure out the actual value of bitcoin.

Speaking about this new-age currency, Marks said:

It’s not a medium of exchange, it’s a medium of trading, so I can’t see any intrinsic value, I don’t understand what’s behind bitcoin.

He later added:

For me, there is only one kind of investing: When you look at something, you don’t think, ‘Is it going up or down tomorrow?’ … You say, ‘What is the intrinsic value?’ and then you say, ‘Can I buy it for less? […] There is no intrinsic value in bitcoin.

Value of Bitcoin tops $4000

Value Keeps on Rising

Despite this doyen of traditional investing stating that there is no intrinsic value to the most famous digital currency, its value recently topped $4,000. As such, there are very few assets in the world that can even come close.

Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee, CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management Josh Brown as well as another investing legend Bill Miller, are all in the opposite camp of Marks’ as they have thrown their full support behind this up and coming skyrocketing asset.

Lee believes it will be the top performing asset at the end of the year while Miller has said that he is the proud owner of bitcoin.

Don't get left behind

Left Behind

Marks was happy to concede on the show that perhaps the digital currency was a technology and an asset that he was simply too old to understand.

“Maybe I’m just too old and too much of a dinosaur to understand bitcoin,” Marks said jokingly.

However, Marks has still been bold enough to compare bitcoin to other bubbles that have gone back as far as the 1900 Tulip mania in the Netherlands. It is through his popular memos that the former Oaktree Capital co-chairman warned about a crash in bitcoin.

Should people worry about what these traditional investors think? Is bitcoin breaking the mold and setting its own precedents? Let us know in the comments below!

Images courtesy of CoinMarketCap, Shutterstock, Thomas Lee/Bloomberg

The post Legendary Investor Howard Marks Admits ‘I Don’t Understand What’s Behind Bitcoin’ appeared first on Bitcoinist.com.

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