Good morning, traders. We’ve made it to, yet, another Friday. There are a lot of ways to understand price movement and I’ll be discussing a few today. futures expire in just a few hours and the that I warned about yesterday is showing itself. So far, this morning’s move aligns with what I discussed yesterday could happen if price moved out of the it was in. I said that I would specifically be looking for a bounce in the $3850-$4000 area with the 15 minute S1 located at $3875. Price hit a low of $3861 before bouncing. If you tuned into yesterday morning’s live stream, then you know that at that time I was expecting price to follow this path. At this point, things are looking just as they should. You also may have noticed the pattern that printed, so even if you didn’t pay attention or give much thought to what I said, it should’ve had you exiting your long position (if you’re a short TF trader) or going short on the drop through the neckline. Ultimately, the target based on that is around $3827, so there’s always the possibility price could continue to that point. However, the current low on this drop is where the expectation was as of yesterday due to the demand present.
We have printing on the 1H and lower TFs’ this morning and the price low tagged the 61.8% retrace of the move up from the candle that started the previous ascending channel’s support at $3548.76 to the high of $4409.77. I will be looking for price to exit through this current descending channel’s resistance and then to head upward. However, traders who choose to be in the market at the moment shouldn’t lie to themselves about the risk they are taking. With expiry happening in a few hours, we should expect more which can easily shakeout traders by hitting their stop losses with sudden price surges and/or drops.
I have added a large green to the 15 minute chart that I will be watching. At the very least, I expect price to target the top of it. But a push through that resistance should set up an attempt at the target of $4765. The width of the potential green channel is about $390, so traders could also use that as a target once price breaches the channel’s resistance. If price happens to move lower than the bounce, I will be adjusting the green channel to compensate for that movement. I have adjusted the expected outlined movement if price breaches the large on the 6H to compensate for this morning as I mentioned I would yesterday. A push through that wedge’s resistance within the next 24 hours should generate a target of around $5700 based on the width of that . During yesterday’s live stream I discussed the possibility of an pattern forming on the 6H TF, which price is building pretty well at the moment. Current expected target is around $5330-$5350 if the pattern plays out. Don’t forget to watch the monthly candle as well which closes at the end of the trading day, today, and the weekly candle which closes at the end of the trading day, on Sunday. The higher that price ends today, the more that 1M candle potentially becomes, and the higher that price ends the week, the more that possible reversal becomes. These two candles will likely tell you more about the pair’s current state than the 1D or lower candles that everyone’s concentrating on.
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something nice for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day or even their life.
Remember, you can always click on the “share” button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on “Make it mine” from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
Published at Fri, 30 Nov 2018 14:22:30 +0000
