The chart here shows the short term, but the information below is a bit more involved.
Short Term: The more short term moves to consider will the the breaking of the local 3900 resistance or the local 3500 support. A clean break of either of these should be a strong clue as to the next direction we will see.. A break above 3900 will likely mean a restest of 4200. A break down below 3500 will likely mean a retest of yearly lows around 3100.
Market sentiment for crypto centric traders can be found on Bitfinex where Longs vs Shorts are 51/48. Therefore people who focus on cryptos are very slightly .
Wider market sentiment can be found on Client Sentiment,
“bitcoin: Retail trader data shows 77.5% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 3.44 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 0.4% lower than yesterday and 6.2% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 2.7% lower than yesterday and 6.4% lower from last week.” (I will post link at the end of this article)
This tells me that the wider market is significantly more long than it was just before we rose from 3100 area. Typically, takes the contrarian view and that the MM will sell into those longs to tap into liquidity. The only recent time I have seen them not take the contrarian view was when was at 3150 and 72% of traders were net long, which was a comparative low (wow!). This tells me the wider market is still while the more crypto focused traders may be more or less neutral.
As to Bitgur’s open interest sentiment (CME/CBOE), the small traders are buying and the larger traders are selling while the funds remain neutral. This tells me that those who can move fast are likely catching small rises while the slower movers have an overall outlook and are selling. It takes time for the big boys to sell, so I tend to look at their moves as more of a mid term indicator. I look at the smaller traders as short term and I look at the Funds as very long term.
Looking at the chart below, I am seeing shorter term relatively flag and magnitude decreasing (typical for triangular consolidation and market exhaustion). The 200 and 275 are both in direction and don’t look to be going flat anytime soon. We would have to see a VERY hard move for these longer to look upward, which is a decent sign that we are not ready to move upward yet. There are many resistances to test. Without a hard down and/or a tether print, I don’t see heading very far up anytime soon.
4200 is the local resistance to beat. 4400 is the next checkpoint before we can really start to gather some of the “local bulls”. The entire market is now looking at 6000 as the main turning point since we bounced on it so many times this year. I expect our first run to 6000 to be rejected HARD. For now, I expect price to stay in it’s relative range. It may move up to or above 4400 and it may sink down to 3100 area or even below. 4400 and 3100 are the mid term levels which we need to watch for the bigger moves to come.
References:
bitgur.com
open interest report | Bitgur
open interest report chart and analysis
Client Sentiment
***Any information represented here is my opinion only and not intended to be used for financial gain. None of the information posted here is to be considered financial advice. Information posted here is strictly for entertainment purposes only. Please consult your financial professional before making any kind of investment. Investments can be very risky and any investor should educate themselves before investing by enlisting the help of a licensed financial professional. Past results are not indicative of future results in any construable way.***
Published at Sat, 05 Jan 2019 07:03:05 +0000
