Looking at the weekly on we see a significant spike accompanying a large drop in price often indicative of a climax sell off at the end of a steady decline in price and it is a sign of trend reversal. But many seem to think this will result in an immediate turnaround in price. It is far more common to have a prolonged period of ranging before the next bull run begins. This has been true for traditional markets for over a hundred years and it has been true so far for . It is by no means required though. Nothing is 100% certain. No one can predict the future. We merely search for probabilities. I think it’s probable that has seen capitulation and we’re due for about 6-12 months of ranging somewhere between $3000 and $5000.
So then we set our range low and our range high and we see if either is tested and how price reacts. We look for higher highs and lows or lower lows and highs and adjust our ranges. The safest trades are generally playing the retest of a previous resistance/support level. The trend is your friend. Identifying friends is important and should be fun. Look to the past to reveal the future…
Does history always exactly repeat? No. Will the fractals of the previous bear markets and this one be identical? No. Does that mean we should disregard the past completely? Obviously not.
The markets ARE evolving. Crypto IS a new breed: 24 hour markets, algo-bots, low liquidity, the to influence prices for the savvy wealthy entities who entered this still new market in it’s infancy, etc, and it’s all unregulated. There are many heavily influential actors that Do affect the price. Retail traders need to adjust accordingly as the game changes. But the rules are still the same. Humans gonna human. The markets are reflections of human emotion. People react to emotion predictably. So there will be patterns. Find them. Find your system. Backtest it. Papertest it. Refine it and deploy it. Learn from your mistakes. Accept losses and try not to repeat them.
If a teacher ever points to the moon don’t be distracted by their finger.
Published at Thu, 06 Dec 2018 06:34:00 +0000
