Hey guys,
I never really published anything previously but I was asked to elaborate on my thoughts in a chat earlier today and it got me thinking a bit deeper so I decided to draw some comparisons to the 2014 trend using a 3 day chart and draw a couple of possible scenarios for our current trend.
The chart is pretty self-explanatory, with comments about each section.
Couple of notes:
I like to run a 55 on a 3D chart because it makes it simple: we trend above it and we’re in a bull trend, we break and trend below it and we’re in a bear trend. At the moment, we’re very far away from it.
VPVR nodes aren’t enabled on this chart, but when considering the possibilities for scenarios 1 and 2, please do consider that the VPVR profile between 2k and 2.9k is very thick and will be hard to break. If we are to copy 2014 completely, we would need to test the lower boundary of the fork, which would mean brushing through this thick node with extreme bear strength and bouncing off the 1k-1.2k area block.
Otherwise, a much more likely scenario is finding the bottom around the 2.2-2.6k block. This way we don’t entirely copy 2014 move for move and simply run out of strength required to get thorough that thick block.
My macro outlook really comes down to two options:
2.2-2.6k bottom with a shorter consolidation and an early 2020 trend reversal confirmation – 75%
1.1-1.3k bottom with a multi-year bear/consolidation market and a 2021/22 trend reversal – 25%
Remember, for the first time since the inception of Bitcion, our 10 year long trend-line has been breached severely so do not underestimate the lower end of probabilities of where we’re going to go. The only way this entire situation is a huge bear trap is if we rally hard and close above the 10 year very soon, as it keeps getting higher and running away from us. The longer we spend below it, the harder it will be to re-test it within a reasonably short period of time.
To put it in perspective: In November 2019, the re-test would have to be in the $16,000 region.
If you’d like to catch an absolute bottom, I would NOT suggest playing with leverage and simply buy spot layered down from 2.6 to 2.2k and from 1.3k to $999.
Let’s see if this works out.
Good luck to all!
Published at Wed, 12 Dec 2018 11:04:22 +0000