Bitcoin Trying to make a Daily Reversal after Bear trap? Part 2

Bitcoin Trying to make a Daily Reversal after Bear trap? Part 2

Not much has changed, volume is dropping, which is not great but is also normal if this is a real bull flag . We do want to see a breakout upwards soon though. I do not want to see it take another 24 hours or so, because than i might be distribution again.

Just a few min ago there was an attempt to break up, but the volume was to low so it is getting rejected so far. If this break up happens, we really need to see a very big volume increase happen. As mentioned in the previous analysis, if this is the start of a new rally (Wave C of the ABC correction up from 3200), the next wave should be a big one. Meaning a rally to like 3900/4000 with very high volume .

Another option is, that the current wave up is just a new small ABC correctional wave, (probably) meaning, we make a small drop towards 3500ish and go up again to like 3700 before continuing the bear trend again.

A third option (less likely at this moment), is this move up was just a shake out and we simply drop from here on out. Because of that small bear trap move yesterday, i don’t think this option is likely to happen. Unless we move sideways for another day or 2.

Only concrete thing i can say now is, that we have to stay above the green zone on the right, but actually even above today’s low. The red zone on the right has to break, ideally within a few hours, but i think a max of 12 hours. Unless we see a very good and stable bull flag form on the higher time frame.

So depending on if we see a break up and HOW it will go, we can make a much better judgement call on what the direction of the coming weeks will be. At the current stage, it’s still guessing. Also because alts are not showing any real signs. I am not seeing any good moves up on that side. So either the market is still bearish or everyone is simply waiting for what the next step will be. So anything above 3550ish, keeps the bullish version intact. Below that level it could mean the small ABC is in play or the very bearish version.

About the wedge on the left, there is still room for a test of lower levels. I am looking at this pattern, when ignoring all of the above. If the wedge is real, we should not see a straight dump to the low of the wedge (around 3350). Any different movement (smaller/slower drops) keeps the wedge alive.

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Previous analysis:

Published at Wed, 23 Jan 2019 14:17:58 +0000