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Bitcoin Technical Analysis: Bitcoin Cash Civil War Drives BTC to a 1-Year Low

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Bitcoin technical analysis: bitcoin cash civil war drives btc to a 1-year low

bitcoin Technical Analysis: bitcoin Cash Civil War Drives BTC to a 1-Year Low
Bitcoin technical analysis: bitcoin cash civil war drives btc to a 1-year low

Holy mackerel! Out of the blue, bitcoin dropped to a new 12-month low with little notice. Anyone hoping for a Santa Claus rally had better drop to their knees and start the Hail Marys.

Market Overview

Today bitcoin (BTC) 00 got nuked. In fact, the entire cryptocurrency market took a direct hit from a 50 megaton hydrogen bomb — and it looks like it’ll take a while for the smoke to clear. Novogratz was wrong, Tom Lee was wrong, everyone who thought $6,000 was the bottom was wrong. Analysts will probably spend the rest of the week attempting to determine the sources responsible for the turmoil.

Currently, the most digestible explanations suggest that the current sell-off was kicked off by a combination of $6,000 representing a stop loss trigger, as well as the current bitcoin Cash hard fork exerting pressure on an already fragile bitcoin price.

Today’s sharp correction took bitcoin to a 12-month low and the market cap has now dropped below $100 billion for the first time since November 2017. The total cryptocurrency market cap also dropped below $200 million for the first time this year.

Weekly Chart

Bitcoin technical analysis: bitcoin cash civil war drives btc to a 1-year low

The weekly chart broke bearish after a lengthy series of sideways trading. Any oversold bounce under $6,540 is just a lower high, meaning a nearly 15% bounce is needed to restore BTC 00 back to where it was yesterday. Fairly unlikely given the last 4 – 6 months of trading. Although, as mentioned yesterday with the upcoming bitcoin Cash hard fork, ANYTHING could happen.

The MACD made a bearish cross, and the RSI has also broken from its persistent flatline and now dips toward oversold territory. A number of investors and analysts are attributing the current volatility to the BCH fork — but it should be noted that bitcoin frequently dipped below $6,200 and $6,100 and BTC’s inability to overcome overhead resistances highlights an underlying weakness. So while surprising, today’s dip below $6,000 seemed inevitable.

$4,500 and $3,000 are the next supports to watch and the market and its multitude of analysts will decide which prices in between this range will function as psychological supports and resistances.

4-Hour Chart

Bitcoin technical analysis: bitcoin cash civil war drives btc to a 1-year low

There’s not too much to say here that hasn’t already been said. The lack of resistances below the $6,200 – $6,100 zone allowed BTC to drop like a blade through butter, and BTC price is now lower than it was on November 12 of 2017.

Traders might think twice about playing oversold bounces as bears are clearly in control and the current downtrend is still young. The RSI, Stoch, and MACD could easily become extremely oversold and given that a family feud over BCH might be fuelling the entire market downturn, analysis of charts may provide limited value for time being.

The wisest thing to do might be to watch from the sidelines and enjoy the free BCH-SV coins that will be earned by BCH holders. Alternatively, savvier traders might take note of the spread between USD and stablecoin (USDT, Paxos, TrueUSD) or the $300 bitcoin 00 premium that exists between Bitfinex and Coinbase.

Bon Arbitrage, Mes Amis!  

[Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are not intended as investment advice. Market data is provided by Bitfinex. The charts for analysis are provided by TradingView.]

Why do you think bitcoin dropped 15%? Share your thoughts below!

Images courtesy of Shutterstock, Trading View. Market data sourced from Bitfinex.

The post Bitcoin Technical Analysis: Bitcoin Cash Civil War Drives BTC to a 1-Year Low appeared first on Bitcoinist.com.

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Russia Set to Legalize Bitcoin by 2018, Track Every Transaction

The Finance Minister of Russia has revealed state interest in tracking every cryptocurrency transaction ‘just like with bank operations.’ Furthermore, a bitcoin regulation bill is expected later this year, which could go into effect as early as 2018.


‘The State Needs to Know’

Russian authorities are looking into the possibility of legalizing operations with bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies within the framework of curbing illegal money transfers, Russia’s Finance Minister, Alexey Moiseev told Bloomberg.

He continued:

The state needs to know who the participants are in a financial operation. If there’s a transaction, the people who facilitate it should understand from whom they bought and to whom they were selling, just like with bank operations.

Back in February, Russia’s Central Bank deputy chairwoman, Olga Skorobogatova, revealed that the Bank and MinFin is expected to release a cryptocurrency regulation draft later this year, in which it will define whether bitcoin is an asset, cash or security.

She also noted that there is no pressing need to impose any restrictions since operations with cryptocurrencies, including bitcoin, are still insignificant in volume.

bitcoin is a private currency, and it’s become clear that all is not as simple and straightforward as in books and magazines. The position of regulators and agencies is thus that we would not like to issue a concrete ban on it, but rather understand how to approach it, and from this develop a base for regulation.

Kaliningrad May Be bitcoin Testbed

Back in February, Bitcoinist reported that the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad has expressed willingness to become the first region where cryptocurrency regulation could be tested.

Kaliningrad’s business ombudsman Boris Titov explained that regardless of what is decided about crypto at the state level, the area could become a testbed where bitcoin and its ilk are regulated while confirming that cryptocurrencies are currently “not prohibited in the Russian Federation.”

He also added that Kaliningrad could host Russia’s first cryptocurrency exchange.

It’s very important that cryptocurrency circulation not be regulated by any form of sanctions. This concept may sound utopian, but new times call for new solutions, and Kaliningrad Oblast can build on that.

In the Russian mainland, the city of St. Petersburg has recently become a testbed of its own for cryptocurrency teller machines or BTMs. The city currently hosts three machines, which have thus far remained untouched by authorities. If successful, more bitcoin ATMs and cryptocurrency businesses could follow suit.

Privacy Out the Window?

While the legalization of cryptocurrencies in Russia may seem like a one-eighty degree turn from previous legislative proposals of an outright ban, the status quo is probably better for individuals who value privacy. 

Just like in China, which has recently clamped down on its exchanges, who must now identify all users in accordance with Anti-Money Laundering (AML) laws, Russia seems to be headed in the same direction. 

It also appears that Russia’s Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance have realized that bitcoin’s public ledger can be used to track every (pseudonymous) transaction on its blockchain.

Bitcoinist_Apple Differential Privacy

Thus, it’s probably safe to assume that the expected bill will focus on the implementation of Know-Your-Customer (KYC) and AML policies in an effort to link users’ real identities to their bitcoin addresses. This identification process will likely occur at the on-ramp, i.e. when buying/converting into bitcoin, for example.

Therefore, it’s probable that cryptocurrency businesses such as bitcoin exchanges, bitcoin ATMs, online conversion services (e.g. Shapeshift) etc. will have to either comply or face penalties.

On the flip-side, regulatory clarity could open the door to more crypto-related startups in Russia. Meanwhile, ‘legal bitcoin’ in the country could also boost demand for more privacy-focused cryptocurrencies like Monero and ZCash as well as the development of bitcoin anonymizing tools such as Mimble Wimble.

Will Russia legalize crypto in 2018? Will it have a positive effect on bitcoin? Let us know below!


 Images courtesy of CNBC, Shutterstock

The post Russia Set to Legalize Bitcoin by 2018, Track Every Transaction appeared first on Bitcoinist.com.