BITCOIN – Super-Strong Support! Could We See a Small Bounce?

BITCOIN – Super-Strong Support! Could We See a Small Bounce?

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First of all, I want to show the most important area on the chart. I have mentioned this before but again we are back to test this level. The current strongest area around the current price locates between $3,572-$3,588 (light-blue area below the image).

If we count current 4H candle touch then we have 20 rejection from this area, either direction – it has worked as strong resistance and as strong support level multiple times. So, 20 rejections and only two(!) times the price has managed to break through from it. From the bullish perspective, we have to be happy that we have so strong support level below the current price.

Back to the yesterday’s action. The first bigger 4H candle breaks the major counter trendline and breaks below the EMA’s (100&200). A possible movement downward was on my alert post JUST before it made the massive move. The counter trendline break was the ugliest scenario because if the counter trendline breaks then You already know – the trend is your friend and the second big 4H candle came quickly to the big bearish trend direction. The second 4H candle came pretty quickly…

…it smashed the smaller trendlines , smashed the short-term perfect FIB level and it changed the short-term market structure higher lows to the lower lows and it found the support from the prementioned super-strong area around $3,580 and also there is a perfect Fibonacci retracement level 62%!

What do I expect from the current situation?

As I said, we made breakouts from multiple strong support levels BUT we haven’t retested those at all. Those price levels were strong ones and if the market wants to break those it needs strong power, it got a strong power but as I said on my previous posts: the market is like a human if it breaths in it also has to breath out. So, I expect that the market has to “breath out” to retest some of the strong levels above the current price.
First retest level would be the small trendlines crossing area just below the $3,800. I would like to see that the market makes a retest the counter trendline but I’m realistic and to find the buying power after panic selling is too much to ask but still I believe that the price makes some higher levels retest. Let’s see what we get from the current situation, this is almost the last day to make a stronger move because as You know, the weekends are usually with low volume inside the candles and then it would be too much to ask to make some important moves!

After the major counter trendline break , my bias has changed from bullish into the bearish . So I would like to search some sell setups but currently, I believe the price make a small bounce upwards and the first target would be the smaller trendlines crossing area, so maybe from there would be a perfect sell setup but it depends on the price action, as always I try to keep You posted!

I would change my bias if the price reaches above the $4k and above the light-blue trendline just above the $4k (tiny dotted trendline since 1. April 2018). If we manage to go so high then this move was TOP 1 manipulation 🙂 but time wise the change from bearish to bullish is far!

As You already know, we are above the super-strong area. IF the price starts to fall lower than the strong area (this drop would be quick because as You see on the image above we have only two candles managed to break through from this level and we can be almost certain that the third one would be exactly like those two – strong, long and full of bearish volume ) then be careful and 1H candle close confirmation below the $3,572 should be enough to confirm further bearish price action!!
SELL targets after 1H candle close confirmation:
– $3,400
– $3,310
– $3,220

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*This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only!

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Published at Fri, 11 Jan 2019 07:02:03 +0000