Ok so it finally moved. Time for an update then.
The suspense it at its highest now, is at resistances and we wait and see if it makes a higher high.
There is divergence on the , meaning stronger and stronger momentum fails to make higher highs (until now).
In the past 365 days the price either stayed below the MA100 or went briefly above but had no follow up and fell right away.
We never went more than 12% above the 100MA. Ignore Bitfinex “legit” move on the 15 october.
The price stayed below the 200MA for the past 11 months.
As you can see:
And compared to the day the MA was breached:
Do I think this is likely? NO. I thought we could likely go up 2 months ago, I was aiming for 6000, but the price has remained contained all this time.
I even thought we could go up all the way to 0.5 fib $7500.
Bulls have failed to show follow up again and again, and we are at resistance so I am just shorting , not super convinced, but we rarely are going to get something on a litecoin plater.
If it makes a higher high then maybe that cancels the short (or the usual club wanted to liquidate people before selling).
The general sentiment for whatever reason is so much towards the bull side. Even I am a little concerned I am shorting at the bottom. So I will countertrade myself because I have self awareness.
shorts are at the low of their 1 year trend, as well as monthly support.
Sentiment is high, momentum/rsi is high, shorts are low, but the price is not up.
This is pure going against the herd here. I hope I do not get stampeded :p. I am even going against myself.
Buying really does not make much sense yet. If the price makes a higher high and then a higher low, or stays the same way “in a rectangle” (not a triangle of lower highs) for the next 3 months then maybe? Or if it trends. Especially if it trends slowly and then accelerates and makes a new stronger trend…
Even if it goes up who cares about buying the bottom? You make 30% more money but you wait 3 times as long. Worth it?
Fingers crossed 🙂
Published at Mon, 18 Feb 2019 16:29:25 +0000
