The Liquid Index combines the chart data from some of the biggest and most liquid exchanges that trade directly to and from fiat currencies (mostly USD).
This log chart depicts general support lines using blue lines, and the three large scale market cycles we’ve seen in , as well as one smaller cycle (D) that is kinda more of a large-scale retrace as part of a bigger uptrend, rather than a market cycle in and of itself.
The three green price info lines (A/C/F) show to . Notice how each has increased less (by percentage) with each cycle. This trend may temporarily slightly reverse, seeing our next 600% to 6000% higher than the last at about 19.5k USD; in my opinion. Ultimately, however, I believe the percentage increase from to will decrease on average over the next couple decades until likely stabilizing to some degree (relatively speaking).
You will also notice the length of downtrends ( to cycle-bottom) is increasing with each cycle, understandably so, while market cap is increasing exponentially with each cycle as well; the more money an asset is worth, the more stable (by percentage) it tends to become, and the more stretched out the large scale market cycles become. The current cycle appears to be quite able to capitulate in February, right in line with last years timing. But it could of course capitulate this month or next, or possibly even in Q2 2019.
After that capitulation I expect somewhat (or very) long and very-slightly upward sideways movement in the market with quite low relatively speaking, followed by a heavy increase in and short spike in price with a fundamental sentiment of disbelief in the market. Think of people saying things like, “This is just a pump, will either die out slowly or stay around this price if it sticks around.” This will signal the time for an uptrend. That, combined with a golden cross on the (50 day MA going above 300 day MA), would be another signal for the beginning of a long and beautiful uptrend. Following the uptrend is a ridiculous increase in market cap and price as large amounts of people FOMO in or get in out of ignorance, hope, and influence from their friends; price goes parabolic. Then we wait for multiple signals for a reversal, of course, and sell according to our exit strategy.
Rinse and repeat.
Published at Fri, 14 Dec 2018 02:42:20 +0000
