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Bitcoin Price Bubble Pops as Investors Develop Immunity to ‘Infection’, Barclays Claims

Bitcoin price bubble pops as investors develop immunity to ‘infection’, barclays claims

Bitcoin Price Bubble Pops as Investors Develop Immunity to ‘Infection’, Barclays Claims

Bitcoin price bubble pops as investors develop immunity to ‘infection’, barclays claims
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The bitcoin price bubble is popping, and Barclays says that this time it will not see a future recovery.

Writing in a Tuesday note to clients, a group of Barclays analysts led by Joseph Abate argued that bitcoin and other so-called asset bubbles chart a similar course to the spread of infectious diseases, which plateaus once the population reaches the immunity threshold.

From the note:

“As more of the population become asset holders, the share of the population available to become new buyers — the potential ‘host’ population — falls, while the share of the population that are potential sellers (‘recoveries’) increases. Eventually, this leads to a plateauing of prices, and progressively, as random shocks to the larger supply population push up the ratio of sellers to buyers, prices begin to fall. That induces speculative selling pressure as price declines are projected forward exponentially.”

Arguing that there is now near-universal awareness about bitcoin and other cryptoassets in developed economies, the analysts claimed that the Bitcoin price — which has fallen 65 percent from its December high — is unlikely to see the sort of recovery it experienced following previous bear markets.

“We believe the speculative froth phase of cryptocurrency investment — and perhaps peak prices — may have passed,” the analysts concluded.

That’s because, in their view, there are now much fewer investors who have not already developed an immunity to the “bitcoin infection,” which is largely spread through word-of-mouth and relies heavily on investors succumbing to a fear of missing out (FOMO).

On the other hand, though, data indicates that a very small percentage of the world’s population has invested in cryptoassets, particularly in developing economies where they might be more attractive due to the difficulty that many people have obtaining access to banking and other basic financial services.

Moreover, the phenomenon of the “network effect” suggests that the inherent value of bitcoin will increase as more people use it, which should help sustain the bitcoin price even during periods when the market is not in a speculative frenzy.

Featured image from Shutterstock.

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Published at Tue, 10 Apr 2018 14:52:39 +0000

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South Korea Moves to Regulate Domestic Bitcoin Trading, Exchanges

South Korea Moves to Regulate Domestic Bitcoin Trading, Exchanges

Since late November 2017, South Korea has looked to regulate cryptocurrency trading in domestic exchanges, including Bithumb, Coinone and Korbit,  The Korea Herald reports. Now, trying to tame the wave of wild cryptocurrency speculation in the country, South Korea is imposing trade bans for minors and looking for ways to impose taxes on investment returns.

South Korea is the world’s third largest market in bitcoin trading, after Japan and the U.S., and the largest exchange market for ether, accounting for more than 33 percent of its market share, according to a recent MIT Technology Review report. The country is also home to two of the top 15 global digital-currency exchanges (Bithumb and Coinone) and believed to have about one million registered daily traders in virtual currencies, which is equivalent to about one out of every 50 citizens.

This is worrying the South Korean government. In September 2017, the country’s Financial Services Commission (FSC) ordered a ban on Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs). In November 2017, the head of South Korea’s Financial Supervisory Service said that the agency was monitoring cryptocurrency trading inside the country, and the country’s National Tax Agency revealed that it was considering a value-added tax, a capital gains tax or both on cryptocurrency trades. If the plan is implemented, South Korea will become one of the few countries to tax cryptocurrency-to-cash exchanges.

The government’s concern is also motivated by the risk of cyberattacks from the country’s rogue neighbor, North Korea. According to South Korea’s National Police Agency, North Korean hackers could be targeting South Korean bitcoin exchanges.

With these newest measures, North Korean banks that offer accounts for cryptocurrency trading will have to verify the identification of new account holders and prohibit minors from opening accounts. Woori Bank and Korea Development Bank will shut down virtual accounts offered to cryptocurrency exchanges before year-end, according to the banks.

The regulators will also bar financial institutions from investing in or obtaining cryptocurrencies, and is considering ways to oblige cryptocurrency exchange operators to verify users’ real names, strengthen storage security of encryption keys, and disclose purchase price and order volumes. The authorities will also take strong-handed punitive actions against the perpetrators of cryptocurrency-related scams.

In a press release, the government said that the new regulations were necessary “to prevent a general public without expertise from suffering losses by participating in virtual currency investments that have massive fluctuations.”

These issues were discussed on Wednesday, December 13, 2017, in a meeting presided over by Hong Nam-ki, minister of the Office for Government Policy coordination, and attended by officials from the ministries of justice, finance, and science and ICT, as well as from the Financial Services Commission, the Korea Communications Commission, the Fair Trade Commission and the National Tax Service.

While some news headlines are presenting this as a catastrophic development that will shut down the cryptocurrency industry in South Korea, the initiative of the South Korean authorities is in line with current trends toward stronger cryptocurrency regulations in China, Europe and the U.S.

“A right set of regulations will rather nurture the (virtual currency) market, and we would welcome that,” Bithumb representatives told Reuters, adding that such a code of conduct could add legitimacy to the market.

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