analysis here showing that we are currently in a consolidation phase of wave 2. We are range trading in what appears to be a consolidation triangle with upper bounds of 4085 and lower bounds of 3970 that is taking the form of a nice from the last impulse wave 1. On the , we are trading right below the 50 causing pretty decent resistance. The (b) subwave bounced right off of it and back down. So I suspect the (d) subwave will do the same before the 3rd and final attempt will break through. This also coincides very closely to the neckline of the inverted I have drawn. If this indeed happens that we break through the 50 , and the neckline, many people will jump in to buy and the impulse could be very .
Our first target/resistance would be the 4188 red resistance line. This showed strong back to Fall of 2017, but again during the recent months in December. But this should not hold the bulls very long and they will continue up to 4426-4445 zone. From here we will need a retrace on Wave 4 back to retest 4188 (and very close to a retest the neckline) before Wave 5 impulse takes us to 5000.
So as you can see, I am quite at this point. All though there is a lot of fighting to be had, we have a lot of positive signs. This right shoulder of the helps us see that we have printed Higher Lows since December 27th; that’s 2 straight weeks. We are also trading above the 50 and 200 on the 4 chart which is providing support now.
I will publish an expanded view below to exhibit the full wave count and pattern.
Beyond the 5000 target of this wave 5, we can obviously expect a retrace back to 4445 zone of the Major Wave 4 and then up to the Major Overhead Resistance at 5500-5800. This coincides closely with a retest of the bottom of the that formed from the All Time High last December. This triangle broke down and has created the recent bear market. So a retest of this area could spur another deeper correction below 3000.
On the flip side, in the near term, if we cannot break upward from the 50 and the neckline of the with good . A weak breakout, or no breakout at all would be very bad news for the bulls, and my wave count would need to be reevaluated.
I’m giving 60% chance on my first Option as drawn, and a decent 40% chance that we don’t make a solid breakout and we continue downward creating another Lower High and more Lower Lows coming.
See below for a blown out view! Give a Like if this was informative for you!
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Published at Wed, 09 Jan 2019 17:13:33 +0000
