LOGISTIC CURVE
The logistic curve describes the speed of information dissemination among people. This graph describes the distribution of information in an environment.
At first, a instrument is of little interest to anyone, investors are afraid of buying it, and its price fluctuates around r °. At this time, the initiated (“elite”), solely owning important information, begin to buy it, the price slightly grows. Then the information is shared with a small circle of insiders, individual purchases grow into active buying, the price of the instrument abruptly takes off. The general public is perplexed and can not understand what is the reason. At the third stage, news comes out and investors fearing not to have time to “jump into the last car” buy up this tool that the “elite” and “proxies” are happy to sell to them at the maximum price (with joy, because at that time the “elite” there is already new information that the “elite” has taken into account, a new logistic curve in another instrument begins, or in the same, but with another sign, sales begin). The third stage is completed, when the whole society is aware of what happened, discuss everywhere, in the , all who could have already made There is no one to sell.
Practice of application: the most important is to determine at what stage the price for the asset is now at which you paid attention and in relation to which you received some information. You can recognize and apply the .
The main thing is not to get into the crowd number at stage 3. If in all financial newspapers, on news sites, on TV there is a discussion of news / ideas – in fact, it is no longer news, this crowd of investors are bred, and this idea should not be used as its defining action (unless with another sign, directly opposite).
Examples in life and the stock market abound. On the classics the same was done with last year
People do not change over time. Information and actions of the consonant received information people do the same actions.
The only thing that changes is the slope of the logistic curve – information dissemination rate
As a rule, 90% of bulls in high. And then the market unfolds and vice versa
If you are constantly being told the same thing, then everybody knows it already. It is necessary to look not at the news
If everyone around you screams the same thing, then you are in the upper zone
The task of stepping back from the noise
The main task is to be in the lower green zone. “When there’s blood on the streets, buy property”
Published at Tue, 20 Nov 2018 17:23:36 +0000
