Hi turning mecard is back! yes, we dropped, dropped. but this was the drop i was waiting for, and we still have room, much room
to go up if we do not break below 5100/5200, bitfinex. i am not letting down hopes for end of year bull run, not just yet. it needs to bounce up if this needs to happen at the moment.
so lets see the 4hr chart. we have 21ema at 5750, 50ema at 5990/6000, 100ema at 6190 area.
now, at this level daily below 20, and hourly’s making divergence you need to see that is trying its move up. but how it does it, there are rules.
1. tends to break 4hr 21ema, 50ema, first, then it drops to support, and it goes for 4hr 100ema, and daily 21ema, 50ema, 100ema.
2. wants to make bull divergence in that little bounces and drops, from 4hr to daily. it 4hr divergence is made in long time period it gets more stronger with more , if daily bull divergence gets made in week~2week time period, it gets more stronger.
these are some of the rules that i have seen how moves, when it hits low bottoms like this. now, people would say would go to 4k, or 3k, BUT NOT JUST NOW!
this is because in the log chart, has not broken its long term uptrendline, which, not at 5150/5200(bitfinex). so, before that breaks down, we must think that it will bounce up. has made a NEW LOW, and when new low is made it goes up before anything of that happens.
so unless 5150/5200 breaks down, with heavy in the coming days, do not stoploss all your trades.
now, for i see, with how makes a uptrend, short or not, it will try to break 4hr 21ema, onto daily and so on.
this is what did last june, when it first visited 5700 area(green circle). it tried to break 4hr 21ema, 50ema first, but came down again to and . and made a 4hr, daily divergence, which made a run up to daily 21ema, 50ema, 100ema.
so basically, what i think this will do is what it did in last june.
so this week i think trading range, in bitfinex is around 5700/5800(or even 5900) at top, but i think it will drop after some consolidation to 5400/5300 area, and . if that happens, i believe, daily since it is under 20, will go little over 30, but not reaching 40 and come down. daily will make a divergence i believe, when, we visit 5750~5900 area and drop.
but after that i believe will make a run towards 6k, and even to 6350/6400 area where it is the top line of the . this is a very logical pattern of what does. and it drops again, but IT COULD MAKE AN PATTERN, where we could make a big run up above, and above.
so this week trading range will be 5300(bottom 5200/5150 at least)~~5900 area. next week after of support, we can see 6k, and first week of december could bring us more higher to 6300 area. at that point we can break upwards, or we can breakdown back to 5500/5600 area. but if we hold 5500/5600, it means pattern is made, and we can have a good run. or this pattern can be invalidated if we drop further.
IF WE DROP BELOW THEN 5100/5200, BITFINEX, WE MUST STOPLOSS 100% OF COINS. this will mean that 2014 chart is in play for us, where 21/50ema deadcross weekly will bring up 90% or more retracement to 2k, 3k area. so if we break the uptrendline, below chart can be in play.
in terms of weekly , would want to go to oversold area under 30 in weekly.if that happens, i believe 4k is not bottom, we go to 2k, or 3k, even there, and bear market goes on for more 6month or a year.
so safe to play this is we sell, or stoploss, or profit some coins if 4hr bull div–>daily bull is made and we go to 6200/6300 area in coming weeks. or, we cutloss right away when uptrend line is broken down. cash is the power for us at the moment, anyhow.
i have 80% of my positions in steem dollar, 5% in siacoin, 5% in stratis, 5% in , 5% in and some other coins. still not quite feeling the loss, because steem dollar is keeping its price firmly without dropping too much.
Published at Sun, 18 Nov 2018 03:27:11 +0000
