In my previous analysis i talked about that failing to reach the 4600ish target would be a sign of weakness and that we would probably make a decent drop. Bulls were so weak they were not even able to complete the and instead an was formed. A big drop was no surprise because of that. I had the target set around 3800 (and a bit) but we did not reach it completely, this shows there were some eager bulls more than ready to get in. So this shows there is some activity from the buyers side. We made a rally to 4150 as the i showed at the 3860. Now instead of getting resistance we made another jump up towards the 4260.
With this last jump the buyers kept the big alive. I also showed it when i posted my new analysis, but in my view the 4500/4600 should have been reached a few days ago. Instead the right shoulder stopped at 4400. Make no mistake, this is also a sign of weakness. It doesn’t mean it can’t happen, but those chances are much smaller than a normal horizontal . Most of you probably remember the of June/July where we had a clear horizontal neckline at 6800.
With the break of 4200 we have gotten higher than i first expected we would do, but as we reached to the 4260 we have already dropped to 4120 again. At the moment the bulls are finding support from this level and are trying to move up again.
On the higher time frame, with today’s rally, the bulls have kept the most certainly still alive. This is because of a good fast rally, showing some conviction. I did not even give it a chance yesterday, but now those chances will become 50/50 if we can get above the 4200/4210 again.
Alts are showing similar pictures as bitcoin’ does, but a few a bit weaker even. So nothing obvious on that side. For me it’s simple now:
– If we break the 4210ish i might be looking up for the short term, because i think a break of 4600 is needed before i even start to think this short term bear trend is over already.
– If we break the 4120/4100, my original plan is probably still in play and we can make another wave down.
Bigger picture, even if we drop, i think the 3500/3600 won’t be an easy one to break. Might even be a chance it will become the new 6K level for a while. view, the setup is here for a big rally. We have a at 3500 and so far have been moving up and the from the left chart could still be in play, which can push the price even higher. If this would happen, there is still a chance for a big V shape low. But that would mean this has to play out with some conviction. meaning the target around should be reached within a few days. Getting above the 5000 should happen withing 2/3 days max.
I had a game plan in my mind, that was a rally towards 4150ish as a max. Since we broke it and moved up even more, there might be a chance i need to reconsider a new bigger picture game plan. So if we break the 4200 and the 4300, i will probably just take a day off to let things play out first so i can get back in again without being biased. This is something i always do, when a game plan fails, i simply take a brake (or trade other assets). I would certainly not mind at all after these hectic few weeks. It’s also one my benefits, i don’t have a long term attachment to crypto, so i don’t mind missing out on a wave.
At the moment it’s moving inside a small upwards channel, so i think we can get an answer any minute now.
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Previous analysis.
Published at Sat, 01 Dec 2018 22:51:48 +0000
