Thought this one was worth showing. Think most might have seen it already, but this is the area were are in now. Reason why i said, we need to see increase during moves up, well this is why. There are a lot of similarities to why should drop from current levels, but i do want to show a few differences.
1) The move from 38x to 4030 was a buying rally and not a short squeeze.
2) Back then, it was more like a (because of that selling at that high in the middle), this time it’s still a .
3) Yesterday’s move up to 4010, was some big aggressive buying. Back then the selling was more aggressive (green circles).
4) In Jan alts were breaking out upwards the last few hours just before the drop, this time alts are weaker.
5) Alts market cap, is better now than it was 2 months ago.
Point one is an important one, because a short squeeze is artificially (forced buying, stops triggering). Point one, is difficult to say, shape is not clear. Point 3 has meaning, but then was in general a bit higher than now. Point 4, maybe bulls don’t want to get fooled twice, or is that maybe on purpose?
There are even more factors, but things will get too complicated and it won’t add much, just makes the puzzle even bigger :). I am keeping it simple. If the 3960 breaks, i would be on Defcon 3, if that channel breaks, i would be on DEFCON 2, if the 3940/30 breaks, i would be on DEFCON 1 :).
The 3990/4010 needs to break, but if that happens, the needs to keep increasing on the way up from current levels, this is extremely important. If this happens, we should see a push to 4150/4200 from current levels, it should not be anything less than that!! It doesn’t have to be a short squeeze, but bulls need to be in control if we do break the 4000ish.
If that channel breaks, as mentioned, i would be very careful, if the low of the breaks (around 3940/20, i would simply get out or hedge my positions. The looked almost perfect since the start even, just the past 12 hours, things have been taking to much time and to little movement. Usually a sign of bears being in control, but i am not convinced yet. Green zone at the end, shows back then and now at the similar stage, was dead.
Previous analysis: This one is also still active.
Published at Tue, 19 Mar 2019 04:08:11 +0000
