The play i showed a few days ago played out but has not reached it’s target yet. A very important factor now is, will it be able to reach the target or not. If it can’t move up, it means the market is not strong enough and we can see some panic selling again. The market took some big hits the past few weeks and does not just simply forget that. So when patterns like this start to fail, we can see panic selling happening ( pattern).
So at the moment it’s difficult to say what will play out on the short term. We can see a clear on the right and the possible on the left. This says we need one more wave up, but that is not always the case. During extreme weakness, it could simply just drop out of it now. Normally, maybe 80% of the time we would see one more wave up. Just see some weakness at the moment that i am not sure it will happen. Hanging around the support line for a few hours already, usually a sign there is no power to push it up.
Low time frame we have a small range between 4200 and 4300. A break of 4300 could mean the will make that last wave up, a break of 4200 will probably mean what i mentioned above. The target of the is still around 4600, therefore i though we should have had a bigger correction yesterday to around 4000//3950, make a solid there and make that last move up towards the target. But never went that low and started to move up quickly again. This looks like strength but that is not always the case.
Bigger picture plan i had in mind, was either turning down again from the 4600ish to the 3K levels again, or to make a right shoulder if it would stay above the 4200ish for a big . This is not that likely, because that would mean a V shape low will happen. Indicating the crash mode is already over and done with. Anything can happen in crypto, but i don’t think this is very likely to happen. But just being prepared for all options.
At the moment it looks like we have a triangle in the making on the low time frame, this might give a break of the 4200/4300 range. If we get above or below this range, things might get clearer. Alts are not giving any clear signs as well, some look quite good but others did not even move up the past 2 days like ETH’. A few show bull flags in the making while others (like XRP’) show bear flags. Like LTC’ and NEO’ show possible forming, with only the neckline that has to break. So i do not see clear signs yet that the market is willing to make another push up. A break of these bull flags/ would give a much better indication.
For me it means, that if we can not even get above the 4450ish, it will be a sign and probably start to drop again with the high being set at 4400. If we do reach the 4600 it will depend on where the correction down will go from there. At the moment i can not give a long term direction, it would be crazy to even try that. I prefer to do it step by step for the time being. We have at least a solid low now, a good around 3500. So even if we start to drop, we could be forming higher lows from now. 3800ish would be a good level to form that higher low. In case we drop big and hard and even break that support, i would probably mean this whole up move was just a big correction (the one i mentioned the past week) and that we see another big drop below the 3500.
So if we move up but price slows down around 4450/4500, the big will probably be in play (blue line). If we break the 4200ish now, the red line might be in play. It might be an important day, which can give us a probable direction for the coming week or so. As i am finishing up this analysis, we have made a small bounce up, which gives the blue line and the from the chart on the right a new chance to succeed.
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Published at Thu, 29 Nov 2018 16:44:40 +0000
