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Consensio: P < S MA < M MA < L MA = fully
Patterns: Phase 7 hyperwave |
Horizontals: $3,480 – $3,500 was support, watch for it to become resistance
Trendline:
Parabolic SAR: $3,566
Curve: Backwardation with 3.15% spread
BTCUSDSHORTS: Formed higher low. Now it is testing the 34 MA
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01%
TD’ Sequential: Daily R4 | 3d R7 | 1w: R3
Cloud: Kumo has twisted back to and price has closed the last 9 daily candles below the Tenka-Sen. Watch for C-Clamp.
Index: Lower highs and lower lows
Average Directional Index: Threatening to cross 20 in the next day or two.
Price Action: 24h: -2.9% | 2w: -6.1% | 1m: -9.4%
Bands: Squeezing with price below MA. MA at $3,567 and acting as strong resistance.
Oscillator: Weekly oversold while 3D and D approach oversold territory. When all three line up it can be a very powerful signal.
Summary: It appears that we have been eating away at $3,500 support over last two weeks and today was the first daily close below that level since the middle of December. Almost all of the metrics that I care about are fully bearish: , Consensio, , Sequential, , along with close below horizontal support.
Normally that would be more than enough for me to enter a large short. However, I view this as a no short zone until the curve re enters Contango. As long as the backwardation remains I will have a preference for longs.
A big move is coming and the risk:reward appears favorable for either direction – which is often the case when the market ranges for this long. I am very interested in the Oscillator on the D, 3D and Weekly charts. If those line up and all get a buy signal around the same time then I will be looking to open a large long.
The two most likely outcomes that I am seeing from here are: A) retest $3,000 – $3,175 for support and get a strong bounce to $5,200 – $5,800. B) Range from $3,400 – $3,550 for 2 – 3 weeks and retest top of .
If the less likely third option happens where we break down $3,000 and potentially capitulate then I have high hopes that I will be able to enter a short as soon as the market re enters Contango (believe that if it’s a bear trap there will be Backwardation, if it is a real breakdown there will be Contango).
Published at Tue, 29 Jan 2019 03:08:21 +0000
