For a variety of reasons I no longer believe that $2,718 will be the bottom of the 2018 bitcoin’ bear market. I am now very confident that we will before finding a bottom. That is due to Tyler Jenks’ hyperwave theory and the Point of Control on the Visible Range with > 2 year look back | before the end of 2018, however I do not believe that will be the bottom. Strongly expect ETH to return to single digits before the end of 2019 | 500 at $2,634
“There is a ton of support from $3,000 – $3,200 and it is starting to look like the momentum is waning.”
Position: Short ETH:BTC 0.03109 | Short EOS:BTC from 0.0008057 | Short ADA:BTC from 954 | Short LTC:BTC from 0.00778 | Short XRP:BTC from 8865 | Short USDT:USD from $0.99 | Short BTC:USD from $3,288.5
*Looking at weekly chart*
Patterns: Hyperwave
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $3,168 | R: $3,223
Formed a higher low and looks like it is going to retest all time highs in the next week.
Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.0087%
Short term trend (2 week MA): Close below
Medium term trend (7 week MA): Trending down sharply
Long term trend ( 30 week MA): Trending down and right in line with .
Overall trend:
Volume: on Nov 19th tells me that close ($3,917) should act as strong resistance. Also in line with TDST level.
analysis: Closed a new yearly low
Cloud: Tenkan Sen is right in line with 7 MA.
TD’ Sequential: R6 just opened. A13 just closed.
Visible Range: Huge node at $800 cannot be ignored.
Price action: 24h: +0.4% | 2w: -21.6% | 1m: -42.4%
Bands: Full candle below the bottom band
Trendline: Not visible on the weekly, but appears to be holding strong
Daily Trend (Using 1h 33 MA to identify daily trend): Still but showing signs of a reversal. Price close below and there was just a death cross with the 9
Parabolic SAR: Weekly at $6,251
RSI: Weekly fell back below 30
Stochastic: Weekly is very , diverged in a manner below 20
Last Day Rule: Breaking through $3,500 would be setup day
Summary: I strongly expect that we will see some over the next 24 – 48 hours. Support below $3,200 has been holding strong and so has the resistance from the which is currently at $3,215.
Something is going to have to give and when it does we should see a big move. Yesterday I was watching the 1 hour chart turn and it looked like that could provide enough for the bulls to breakthrough the .
The daily candle failed to close above the and now it is looking like another leg down is more likely than a bounce. My adjusted stop losses did not trigger and I am still in my short position. Based on the price action of the last 24 hours I am feeling much better about that position now than I was yesterday.
If we do bounce from here then there will be serious resistance waiting from $3,840 – $4,150 and that is where I would be expecting a reversal back to the downside. The lack of capitulation is the main reason why I remain confident that we have a long way to go before finding a bottom.
Published at Mon, 17 Dec 2018 02:31:29 +0000
